Oil Stocks in a Vulnerable Spot

In the last 48 hours, did you listen to the absurdities of the stats involving election years? The Dow is up 2% a year after this, or down 4% after this party's candidate.

That's all blah blah blah where I am from. We move those in a few minutes.

Take this week: We have the worst two back-to-back days since 1987. Now that's saying something. Who cares if we are up 2% in the year after a Democrat wins? In this market, anything less than the biggest gains or losers in history mean nothing. We should stop talking about any move that is less than 10% with this market.

The stocks that I believe are most vulnerable to declines here are the oils. They are well off their lows, in fact they ramped big, with the commodity still plummeting. I think that oil could easily head into the mid-$50s.

The group won't get interesting for another more-than-10% down move, and I am focused on Marathon (MRO - commentary - Cramer's Take) and Chevron (CVX - commentary - Cramer's Take) south of a 4% yield. Best way to make the money in the group. The others without yields I think can't hold up here at all.

Random musings: Every time I hear that things are already down too much, I come back to say, can we see the bankruptcies first? The retail bankruptcies? The private-equity bankruptcies? Can we see what happens to Fortress and Citadel? Cerebrus? Let's wait until we get the denouements of those riddles and hundreds like them, and then maybe the picture will clear. What's incredible is that we have had so few bankruptcies!

At the time of publication, Cramer was long Chevron.

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