Morgan Stanley Is the First Domino

"Let's destroy Morgan Stanley (MS - commentary - Cramer's Take) before the deal gets done." That's what happened here. That's what the short-sell plan was about. It was to allow Bank of America (BAC - commentary - Cramer's Take) to get money in -- I have no idea why in heck they waited so long. It was about allowing Citigroup (C - commentary - Cramer's Take) to raise capital. They turned out to be just as inept at raising capital as Freddie Mac (FRE - commentary - Cramer's Take). And it was about letting Morgan Stanley make its deal.

Now the Japanese have to wonder what to do. They can't overpay like this. They either have to buy the whole thing or walk away. That's squarely in the hands of Christopher Cox. We know that this was pure Kesselschlacht, the credit default swap buy, the puts, the short-selling, the "double up on the credit default swaps to move them up," the "call the media," the "freak out the ratings agencies" and voila, it's all over. I have said this over and over and over, and it is so obvious how this plan works that I am embarrassed that the SEC hasn't figured it out.

This game plan was stopped by the short-selling ban. If the government had waived the time between when Morgan Stanley was offered the capital and when the deal got done, it could have avoided this tragedy. The government's hands have blood on them if Morgan Stanley goes down, and obviously if MS goes down, we'll realize the '87 downside target of Dow 5900, either on Monday or Tuesday.

Lets detail the issues that hang in the balance between 1987 and 1929, with 1987 meaning we bounce at 5900 and 1929 meaning a Great Depression that will not allow us to own stocks, period. Remember, in an '87 scenario we wait a year and we make money, but we didn't have financial cataclysms. In 1929, we catch a bounce in November but you had to sell that thing nine ways to Sunday.

1. If Morgan Stanley goes under, we will have another round of Lehman-like disasters that could wipe out most of the annuities in this country.

2. If GM (GM - commentary - Cramer's Take) and Ford (F - commentary - Cramer's Take) go under, we will most likely have double-digit unemployment, which then limits the value of a lot of the other things the government is trying.

3. If we do not cordon off a series of institutions and say, "You will be saved," and then let the others be taken over that could be important, again, we will hit my downside target.

Right now the only countries with capital are the OPEC countries. I know it is heresy, but we need the Saudis and the Kuwaitis in to help shore up our own banks. They do have the money and they haven't lost it yet, that we know of.

It is so politically unpalatable that it is probably not going to happen. We wouldn't let 'em own our ports, after all.

The alternative is a deep-cover operation to put money right into banks and demand that they lend it, but that's probably way too creative for these guys, who couldn't even figure out an uptick rule in time to save things.

At the time of publication, Cramer was long Morgan Stanley.

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