Don't Close the Door on a Recovery

Worried. Worried for the first time about being too negative. We just got an unassisted bid for Wachovia (WB - commentary - Cramer's Take) that showed that the FDIC rushed to judgment and that things weren't so bad. We are getting the bill that could at least change the landscape of mortgages. We are going to get worldwide interest rate cuts. We have many stocks down below their values, even as earnings estimates are coming down, because of hedge-fund strategies that are pushing down the good with the bad.

We have many flush companies that are ready to put money to work if the CEOs feel better about the environment. We have a new president coming. And we have Doug Kass pointing out that everyone is negative as he wants to rent longs.

One thing is for certain: Things are awful. That's why the VIX is off the charts, and the new lows are incredible, and the mistrust is the worst I have ever seen.

But what happens if China comes back? What happens if Wells Fargo (WFC - commentary - Cramer's Take)/JPMorgan Chase (JPM - commentary - Cramer's Take)/U.S. Bancorp (USB - commentary - Cramer's Take)/Bank of America (BAC - commentary - Cramer's Take) can loan? What happens if we are caught short and negative on everything?

What happens if Citigroup (C - commentary - Cramer's Take) buys Nat City (NCC - commentary - Cramer's Take)? What happens if Goldman Sachs (GS - commentary - Cramer's Take) buys a bank or two? What happens if it turns out there is money that wants to have a little risk?

Usual caveats: Things are awful. Let's use the example of Freeport-McMoRan (FCX - commentary - Cramer's Take). Copper is at a two-year low. There's no sign of a bottom. Gold is going down. The company's businesses are all headed lower.

But the stock was down 60%, and the dividend was at 4.5%.

Are the earnings down 60%? Maybe. But I would think they have to swing to a loss to take this stock to the $30s and 5% yield.

I am picking on FCX because it's unlike so many stupid companies that spent everything on buybacks. I could be picking on Nucor (NUE - commentary - Cramer's Take) because it has a 3.5% yield and was just downgraded by Merrill Lynch from buy to hold.

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