The Cash Register Tolls for Thee

You've heard me prattle and write endlessly about how we needed to avoid the Great Depression 2, and this will certainly forestall it. Now let's talk about practicalities.

I have liked U.S. Bancorp (USB - commentary - Cramer's Take) for some time, but here it is trading at a 52-week high at the opening. I don't know, does that seem right to you? Not to me. A 15 multiple on this one is pretty much what you are giving Apple in the year 2011. I can't go with that, and not only that, it is up on a short-ban spike.

Toll Brothers (TOL - commentary - Cramer's Take)? Great homebuilder, but this rally is about the low-end homebuilders, not the high end. Not saying cycle into Pulte (PHA - commentary - Cramer's Take) -- it has had too big a move. I'm saying to ring the register on Toll. Get long the HGX housing index if you want.

Retail's not doing all that well. I think this is more a dollar-store environment than a Target (TGT - commentary - Cramer's Take) environment. I fear retail earnings. I would ring a register or two there.

Each day that the president doesn't invoke the Taft Hartley act to get Boeing (BA - commentary - Cramer's Take) to work makes me more and more nervous about the suppliers, although Boeing, when it goes through its 52-week low, might make sense to actually buy, but that's a few points from here.

Now oil. Toughest. If the Chinese don't come back in -- and remember, I do think they will, but they have been a great mystery -- if they don't come back, then I think oil can trade down again. You are buying oil for the weak dollar, not the stronger economy. Some of the oils are up huge on a spike and without some demand will go down. I have been scaling out of Cabot Oil & Gas (CBT - commentary - Cramer's Take) to be ready to get into a major with good yield support, but I don't have one yet.

Finally, tech. Many tech companies are up, but I have faith in only a few, and we are getting too many reports that sound more like Dell (DELL - commentary - Cramer's Take) than Hewlett-Packard (HPQ - commentary - Cramer's Take).

September has been awful; make sure you have your "i's" dotted and your "t's" crossed. Numbers are coming down across the board.

At the time of publication, Cramer was long Cabot Oil & Gas.

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