I'd Hold Off on Retail

Oh my, this retail trade is still happening. Still. It doesn't seem to matter. Plus, it is all upside down! The companies that cater to the cheaper consumer are stalled -- Wal-Mart (WMT - commentary - Cramer's Take), TJX (TJX - commentary - Cramer's Take), Costco (COST - commentary - Cramer's Take) -- and the mid- to high-ends are all doing great: Macy's (M - commentary - Cramer's Take), Tiffany (TIF - commentary - Cramer's Take), VF (VFC - commentary - Cramer's Take), JC Penney (JCP - commentary - Cramer's Take) and Kohl's (KSS - commentary - Cramer's Take).

This is a remarkable and polar-opposite move of what most people were predicting -- including yours truly. It is almost as if the playbook of the shorts -- own the low-end (Wal-Mart/TJX/etc.) and short the high-end -- has produced short-squeezes galore.

But who can blame the shorts? You fill up at $4.50. You pay twice for chicken and beef what you paid for last year. And all you get is that measly $600. Amazingly, it is working. The $600 iPod-in-every-pocket plan from Congress and the president actually seems to be working. Even if it is one-off. It is working, from the point of view of the owners and buyers of these stocks, and the stocks may not be lying.

Now I have been hit by many shorts on this, telling me, "Don't worry, all will go wrong, this is just the peak week" and telling me not to get bullish. And I am not bullish on the group. I think, still, the next move is down not up.

But I am not an idiot. This group is rocking, and it is not just the shorts. What I see happening is, once again, the recovery trade -- that's right, the early-cycle trade -- is playing out.

I want to see it. I want to see the glimmer of hope that makes it happen. I think what you got this week was a couple of good numbers off of a calendar shift and good weather plus the $600.

For all of the value money -- and that's who is buying retail -- that's enough. They are back, they are big and they are taking the stocks up, and there is no supply.

Here's my take. I am passing on the early-cycle retail trade. It has tended to last three days -- this is the fourth.

I want to wait and see. It won't be that costly up here.

At the time of publication, Cramer had no positions in the stocks mentioned.

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