Exxon's Miss Didn't End the Oil Play

They are not going to crack this Oil Services HOLDRs (OIH - commentary - Cramer's Take) ETF. It's got too much going for it. There is a tremendous perception that this group and the oil and gas cohort have stalled or are finished because of the commodity futures and because of the nasty number from Exxon (XOM - commentary - Cramer's Take).

This is so, so wrong. Here's the deal: The Exxon quarter was about one tension: the need for Exxon to stop buying back stock and start drilling. That's something that has completely eluded Exxon, but not Apache (APA - commentary - Cramer's Take) -- another one that should be bought soon -- or Chesapeake (CHK - commentary - Cramer's Take) or Anadarko (APC - commentary - Cramer's Take). More drilling's coming.

Second, drilling is all about when and where and why. We wanted to drill for deepwater oil because that's what you got paid for -- still do. But this time we have a natural gas boom, and that's huge for drilling, especially because we are no longer going to be flooded by cheap liquefied natural gas.

That's great for Halliburton (HAL - commentary - Cramer's Take) and Nabors (NBR - commentary - Cramer's Take), which must be bought.

Finally, never forget the words of Andrew Gould, the fabulous CEO of Schlumberger (SLB - commentary - Cramer's Take), who changed his view and said drilling is no longer in transition, it is now on fire.

OIH may actually be the best way to play this.

I believe it will go higher.

Random musings: Can the retail rally last? This group is the most tenuous. Do you buy Radio Shack (RSH - commentary - Cramer's Take) ahead of the Julian Day meeting next week? Do you stick with Jones (JNY - commentary - Cramer's Take) after this monster move, or Parker-Van Heusen (PVH - commentary - Cramer's Take)? I think you have to take some profits. This is the least tenable group out there, and you need good weather to hold on to it. Bernanke doesn't control the weather.

At the time of publication, Cramer had no positions in the stocks mentioned.

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