Downgrades Will Offer Good Entry in Oil Plays

So, what's it really saying? What's this market screaming? How about growth with no inflation? How about the opposite of stagflation? This is one of those moments where we are beginning to get a sense that the Fed is doing its job of controlling inflation and promoting growth.

But is it true? Is your screen telling the long-term truth?

I think that every time we have seen a decline in oil and oil futures, we get a move like this, although this one is more vicious; this market trades like it did in the 1990s when a tech company that had been a leader defaulted and punted. Exxon (XOM - commentary - Cramer's Take) is Intel (INTC - commentary - Cramer's Take) when it slipped up in the 1990s. Exxon is saying, "Forget this group, we are never coming back."

I think that's wrong, but it doesn't matter right now. I am anticipating a flood of downgrades, because the analysts cannot handle this dislocation. They will panic. They are panicking.

No one ever made a dime panicking, although initially they think they did.

I sold some BP this morning off of Exxon even though the Exxon problems are Exxon-specific. I did it because the analysts will downgrade the group, and I want to be able to pick up more.

Meanwhile, wait until those downgrades.

As far as the banks? The worst is going to be over for them soon because of the nature of the end of the 2-28 blow-ups. But I still only want to buy Hudson City (HCBK - commentary - Cramer's Take), JPMorgan (JPM - commentary - Cramer's Take) and Goldman (GS - commentary - Cramer's Take). If the others go up, these will go up, too; unlike the others, they don't need capital.

At the time of publication, Cramer was long BP and Goldman Sachs.

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