The Conundrum of Recession Investing

The defensives couldn't be more offensive. The offensives couldn't be more defensive.

How much Union Pacific (UNP - commentary - Cramer's Take) should you own going into a recession? A small position? None?

Short?!

How much Philip Morris (PM - commentary - Cramer's Take) or Pepsi (PEP - commentary - Cramer's Take) should you own? Ten percent each?

You want to own Honeywell (HON - commentary - Cramer's Take) over Procter & Gamble (PG - commentary - Cramer's Take)? How about U.S. Steel (X - commentary - Cramer's Take) over Clorox (CLX - commentary - Cramer's Take)?

Yet that's how it has been playing out over weeks and weeks and weeks. Meanwhile, it doesn't work the same way for tech. Hewlett-Packard's (HPQ - commentary - Cramer's Take) probably doing great; it is offensive in the old style way, and yet it acts awful because of Mr. Softee (Microsoft (MSFT - commentary - Cramer's Take)). I defy you to find a worst-acting 15% grower with a good balance sheet and an unbelievable hidden asset than EMC (EMC - commentary - Cramer's Take)!

People would rather own YRC Worldwide (YRCW - commentary - Cramer's Take)! Certainly Ryder (R - commentary - Cramer's Take)!

The conundrum of the market remains that going into a recession we are buying the transports and the cyclicals and we are selling the companies that would normally have the best year-over-year compares.

Of course, because of the dollar, that's no longer the case. The exporters may be much stronger. Still, it's just endlessly angering to people who go by the playbook to be viewed as being wrong so many times.

At the time of publication, Cramer was long EMC and Philip Morris.

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