Strange Protectionist Talk Is Getting Louder

Maybe we're Japan, circa 1990 and change. Maybe we've become this great export economy that will try to keep others from selling stuff to us. Maybe we have become totally reliant on the buying of others and are, when you think of it, with this pathetic dollar, simply "dumping" our product on the world. Maybe no matter what we do, we can't stimulate our economy and get the consumer to spend.

I believe this thought will become common currency as the Democrats march to what could be a clean sweep in November. It's a nasty thought, because we can't dare become protectionist, or else all the gains you have seen in the transports and in the weak dollar plays go away. Given that the transports have been the leadership away from fertilizer and natural gas, the notion of protectionism is pretty scary.

The more McCain comes to lead in the polls once we resolve the Democratic Party candidate, the more this thesis wanes; if Democratic polls increase, we get a real waxing of both the protectionist thesis and the market. You sure as heck don't want to own Caterpillar (CAT - commentary - Cramer's Take) or Deere (DE - commentary - Cramer's Take) or Eaton (ETN - commentary - Cramer's Take) or Union Pacific or CSX (CSX - commentary - Cramer's Take) or Burlington Northern Santa Fe (BNI - commentary - Cramer's Take) in that environment.

Owning Arch Coal (ACI - commentary - Cramer's Take) and Peabody Energy (BTU - commentary - Cramer's Take) would be a license to underperform. Same with United Technologies (UTX - commentary - Cramer's Take) and Honeywell (HON - commentary - Cramer's Take) which early on saw that you don't want to make the U.S. the focus of any growth initiatives.

Lots of times I try to anticipate the fashion of Wall Street, even if I don't believe in it.

Japan's problems had a lot more to do with aging population, no immigration, which negates aging population, and a saving consumer society. We are never going to be the latter. We simply aren't culturally able to save. And when we don't spend, our government just prints money, particularly with these reckless characters.

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