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No trade I have ever done, no idea I have ever had, has cost me as much as my decision to get behind NYSE Euronext (NYX - commentary - Cramer's Take). This was an idea I liked in the $60s and liked at $100 -- and then liked right back to the $60s. How could I be so obtuse? What was I thinking?
Here is the progression of earnings according to the house of Lehman:
Look at those numbers -- have you seen many companies with that kind of earnings growth? That's just dramatic, consistent and, may I add, I think low, particularly for 2009 where I have been saying that we could have north of $5. Now, what do you pay for that kind of growth, which is literally about as high as I have seen, with 50% gains near term and still very high gains in the out years? I did a "half the growth rate" analysis, thinking that was pretty darned conservative. So I put a 25 multiple on what I think will be the $5 number in 2009, and felt that we could see a progression of where the stock would go to: $1.25 So you can imagine how painful it was to see the stock trade to $69 as the numbers went higher. I am sticking by where I think it will go but when asked, I always say the same thing: The shorts have been in control of this stock and it has been a nightmare.
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Jim Cramer is a director and co-founder of TheStreet.com. He contributes daily market commentary for TheStreet.com's sites and serves as an adviser to the company's CEO. Outside contributing columnists for TheStreet.com and RealMoney.com, including Cramer, may, from time to time, write about stocks in which they have a position. In such cases, appropriate disclosure is made. To see his personal portfolio and find out what trades Cramer will make before he makes them, sign up for Action Alerts PLUS. Watch Cramer on "Mad Money" weeknights on CNBC. Click here to order Cramer's latest book, "Mad Money: Watch TV, Get Rich," click here to order his book, "Real Money: Sane Investing in an Insane World," click here to get his second book, "You Got Screwed!" and click here to order Cramer's autobiography, "Confessions of a Street Addict." While he cannot provide personalized investment advice or recommendations, he invites you to send comments on his column by clicking here. TheStreet.com has a revenue-sharing relationship with Traders' Library under which it receives a portion of the revenue from Traders' Library purchases by customers directed there from TheStreet.com.
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