Very rarely do you get as pure a test of a staple goods thesis as this Pepsi (PEP - commentary - Cramer's Take) quarter. I like everything about it, from the mixture of snacks and sodas to healthy and unhealthy. The international and domestic numbers look strong, and the forecast boost is terrific.
Yet I still would bet that this stock stalls at $65. In fact, the only reason I think it will go up at all is because the Fed'snotes that came out Wednesday took a hard line on inflation.
The outperformance period for the staples is ending right now, in my opinion, but if this stock takes out $66 I will be wrong and will have to recalibrate my expectations.
To me, the money's going elsewhere, except where energy has a direct impact on the staples. And with my matrix of the staples' use of energy, Pepsi just can't be considered as big an energy consumer as many of the other companies. Let's see what the lab -- the market -- tells us.
At the time of publication, Cramer had no positions in the stock mentioned.
Jim Cramer Blog Retail Swap: Housing Plays Over A&F 10/11/2006 4:15 PM EDT Lowe's, Home Depot and Sears are the go-to names now, now that the teen play has run.
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