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RealMoney.com: James J. Cramer
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Media Contributed to the Market Mess

By Jim Cramer
RealMoney.com Columnist

10/28/2005 4:33 PM EDT
 
 Market Analysis
  • Something is very wrong right now with this market: People are quick to pull the trigger based on absolutely nothing.
  • Exhibit A: Microsoft, where nothing was wrong but because of the media's coverage, people sold.
  • With the psychology this bad, it's company actions that matter, not the guidance.



Nothing happened.

The psychology simply changed.

Wow, I like that headline even more than my earlier one. When you see stocks, big-cap stocks, like Microsoft (MSFT - commentary - Cramer's Take) and Exxon (XOM - commentary - Cramer's Take), bouncing around like Mexican jumping beans, selling off and then rallying on the same news, you have to start concluding, as I have, that something is very wrong right now with this market.

People are way too quick to pull the trigger based on absolutely nothing.

Last night I was scrambling to find out what the heck was wrong with Microsoft and why it was down. After checking with maybe 10 really good guys and reading the conference call highlights and the snap research, it occurred to me that I knew exactly what was wrong: nothing!

It was just that the psychology was really horrible and the people reporting on it pronounced it a disappointment without the facts -- most importantly, the fact that the accelerated buyback trumped the guidance.

I have been battling against taking action on the guidance ever since the class-action game came back in full force, despite a change in the law that was supposed to make such suits frivolous. Once again, those lawsuits are anything but frivolous, which means that if I were the lawyer to a major company, I would have to tell the CEO, "Please, please, be downbeat or otherwise we will be back in deposition-land."

Until others understand that once again, we are in the grips of a new litigation wave, I believe that people will continue to parse guidance way too closely.

People, actions, not words, are the way to go, and Microsoft's actions were terrific.

The media has a responsibility to figure this stuff out without abetting the know-nothing hair-trigger traders who know so much less than they think they do.

Alas, though, they don't have the time or the inclination to even know what the metrics are. So they wing it.

And you lose money listening to the winging.

Random musings: Hope to see some of you tomorrow at the Star-Ledger/Commerce Bank personal finance conference. I'll be delivering the keynote speech at 9 a.m. EDT at the New Jersey Convention and Exposition Center in Edison, N.J. This will be my last public speaking appearance of the year, so don't miss it -- and I'll be signing copies of my books, so come say hello -- I'll be glad to see you.

RealMoney Barometer Poll

1 What would best describe your stance heading into the coming week of trading?
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2 Which of these sectors do you think is set to move up in the coming week?
3 Which of these sectors do you think is set to move down in the coming week?


View the results without voting







 RELATED STORIES

James J. Cramer
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10/28/2005 1:57 PM EDT
The annual mutual fund selling is now over, but if you hated this market before it started, take your opening.

James J. Cramer
This Relief Rally's a Nice Non-Event
10/28/2005 10:48 AM EDT
It's just month-end stuff that we're all used to, but it's good to see good earnings having some influence, too.

James J. Cramer
Still No All-Clear on the Market
10/28/2005 3:29 PM EDT
Those who were almost shaken out earlier this week should be looking to make sales here, not buys.



At the time of publication, Cramer was long Microsoft and Commerce Bancorp.

James J. Cramer is a director and co-founder of TheStreet.com. He contributes daily market commentary for TheStreet.com's sites and serves as an adviser to the company's CEO. Outside contributing columnists for TheStreet.com and RealMoney.com, including Cramer, may, from time to time, write about stocks in which they have a position. In such cases, appropriate disclosure is made. To see his personal portfolio and find out what trades Cramer will make before he makes them, sign up for ActionAlertsPLUS. While he cannot provide personalized investment advice or recommendations, he invites you to send comments on his column by clicking here. Listen to Cramer's RealMoney Radio show on your computer; just click here. Watch Cramer on "Mad Money" at 6 p.m. ET weeknights on CNBC. Click here to order Cramer's latest book, "Real Money: Sane Investing in an Insane World," click here to get his second book, "You Got Screwed!" and click here to order Cramer's autobiography, "Confessions of a Street Addict." Cramer appreciates your feedback and invites you to send him an email by clicking here.

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