Jeans Call Turns Out True Blue

Too many jeans. On Fed day, no less.

For months we have heard from Stacy Pak, the Prudential analyst, that none of these teen plays were going to work come August because of all the jeans for sale. She reiterated it again and again. Meanwhile, I have seen everything from "they have to have bottomed," to "there is no jeans glut" as an excuse to own these high-flying stocks.

Until today. When American Eagle Outfitters (AEOS - commentary - Cramer's Take) is right in your face telling you that business just isn't that good in its September business update. Where are all of the apologists now? Where are the people who told you that it was just a hiccup?

There are gameable trends. Just like you can go into every bedding store and see Tempur-Pedic (TPX - commentary - Cramer's Take) products on sale, you can go into every teen apparel store in the mall and see these ridiculous "buy one, take home 50 pairs of jeans" ads.

Now everybody knows.

Maybe Pak will upgrade, just to take a much-deserved victory lap. At a time when so much research is simply ridiculous, this call on these stores is one of the best I have ever seen.

Well done, Stacy!

---

James J. Cramer is a director and co-founder of TheStreet.com. He contributes daily market commentary for TheStreet.com's sites and serves as an adviser to the company's CEO. Outside contributing columnists for TheStreet.com and RealMoney.com, including Cramer, may, from time to time, write about stocks in which they have a position. In such cases, appropriate disclosure is made. To see his personal portfolio and find out what trades Cramer will make before he makes them, sign up for ActionAlertsPLUS by clicking here. While he cannot provide personalized investment advice or recommendations, he invites you to send comments on his column by clicking here. Listen to Cramer's RealMoney Radio show on your computer; just click here. Watch Cramer on "Mad Money" at 6 p.m. ET weeknights on CNBC. Click here to order Cramer's latest book, "Real Money: Sane Investing in an Insane World," click here to get his second book, "You Got Screwed!" and click here to order Cramer's autobiography, "Confessions of a Street Addict." Cramer appreciates your feedback and invites you to send him an email by clicking here.