When It Looks Grim, It's Not Over

Many times in my trading life, I have seen moments like these, moments when everything seems so screwed up, so nutty, so horrible, that people pause and say, "You know what, it is ridiculous that the stock market's going up at all. Can't people see that we are paying $5 for gasoline and that the war in Iraq is out of control, and the president doesn't have a handle on things, and the Fed is against us? Can't people see there isn't a single reason in the world for the market to go higher?"

Each time feels like the first time. Each time feels as if, "Nope, this is it, short everything, we are going down, down, down, and anybody who says otherwise is an idiot and a non-rigorous hooligan."

The first time it happened was right before I got married, 18 years ago, I can't even remember the circumstances that made it seem like the world was coming to an end, but I sure thought it was.

Sure enough, I went in and bought all the puts that I could on just about everything. If there were end-of-the-world puts, I would have taken some of them down.

Not long after, Apple (AAPL - commentary - Cramer's Take) preannounced to the upside. Just like that. Like Apple didn't even know about all of the angst that was out there. Soon after, Intel (INTC - commentary - Cramer's Take) did a restructuring that was bullish. Then we had a couple of takeovers.

Next thing I know, I was having a bad year.

Just like that.

I couldn't even figure out why good things would happen; it was antithetical to my worldview.

Now, understand, that does not mean it isn't right at times -- extremely right -- to get bearish. It also doesn't mean that I have a problem with being bearish. I wouldn't have had the huge year I had in 2000 if I had a problem being bearish.

It just means that things can surprise both ways, good and bad, and when everyone's looking for things to be bad, they tend not to work out that way. That's how I feel now. I don't know a soul who likes this market, not one. I can't find five people who believe in any sector, including oil.

That's a recipe not for a downside move but for an upside move, because things tend not to go to heck in a handbasket like that.

Anyway, I am looking not to sell, and not to buy, but to pick at what's down a lot and to fund it with stuff that's up a lot, and I am doing that because I have, and always have, a posture that it is business as usual until, alas, the casino is closed, and last I looked, unlike Biloxi or New Orleans, it is wide open for business.

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James J. Cramer is a director and co-founder of TheStreet.com. He contributes daily market commentary for TheStreet.com's sites and serves as an adviser to the company's CEO. Outside contributing columnists for TheStreet.com and RealMoney.com, including Cramer, may, from time to time, write about stocks in which they have a position. In such cases, appropriate disclosure is made. To see his personal portfolio and find out what trades Cramer will make before he makes them, sign up for ActionAlertsPLUS by clicking here. While he cannot provide personalized investment advice or recommendations, he invites you to send comments on his column by clicking here. Listen to Cramer's RealMoney Radio show on your computer; just click here. Watch Cramer on "Mad Money" at 6 p.m. ET weeknights on CNBC. Click here to order Cramer's latest book, "Real Money: Sane Investing in an Insane World," click here to get his second book, "You Got Screwed!" and click here to order Cramer's autobiography, "Confessions of a Street Addict." Cramer appreciates your feedback and invites you to send him an email by clicking here.