To read TheStreet.com Investment Team's take on Siebel Systems, click here.
Beware the layup trade. When I see all the buyers circling around Siebel Systems (SEBL - commentary - Cramer's Take), and when I look at that $4 cash hoard, like everyone else, I think, "How can you go wrong with this one? Activist shareholders, caretaker CEO, lots of cash generated -- won't someone take this private at $12 a share?"
But then I think about the competition. That competition, from salesforce.com (CRM - commentary - Cramer's Take), is literally kicking the butt of Siebel. Salesforce.com has superior technology and management has been aggressive in going after Siebel customers. New subscriber additions are running very strong at salesforce.com and that's coming out of the hide of Siebel. How long before Siebel experiences a serious shortfall? Worth questioning.
Remember my rules: Never buy a stock for a takeover that has declining fundamentals. I worry about this Siebel; it seems too easy. I bet Siebel's worried, too.
Random musings: I believe we will catch some upgrades on this Costco (COST - commentary - Cramer's Take). The underlying gross margin improvement is really impressive here, away from gasoline. ... The Goldman Sachs report on Urban Outfitters (URBN - commentary - Cramer's Take) is excellent. The stock's just too darned expensive. ... I'm planning to do only one seminar this year, so make sure you're there. It's going to be a private seminar during WOR's Celebrate America event in Westchester County, N.Y. Reserve the date -- Saturday, June 11, from 11:30 a.m. to 2 p.m. -- so you can meet me, get my favorite stock picks, get a free copy of my latest book, Jim Cramer's Real Money: Sane Investing in an Insane World and enjoy the main event, too, with all your favorite WOR hosts. Tickets are $49.95, and if you open a Commerce Bank checking account at my seminar, WOR will refund the admission fee so Commerce, which is sponsoring the seminar and in which I'm a shareholder, can donate it to the Intrepid Fallen Heroes Fund. I want to see you there! Call 1-800-568-3789 for tickets now.
P.S. Will you be there when Cramer makes his next move?
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At the time of publication, Cramer was long Commerce Bancorp.James J. Cramer is a director and co-founder of TheStreet.com. He contributes daily market commentary for TheStreet.com's sites and serves as an adviser to the company's CEO. Outside contributing columnists for TheStreet.com and RealMoney.com, including Cramer, may, from time to time, write about stocks in which they have a position. In such cases, appropriate disclosure is made. To see his personal portfolio and find out what trades Cramer will make before he makes them, sign up for Action Alerts PLUS. While he cannot provide personalized investment advice or recommendations, he invites you to send comments on his column by clicking here. Listen to Cramer's RealMoney Radio show on your computer; just click here. Watch Cramer on "Mad Money" at 6 p.m. ET weeknights on CNBC. Click here to order Cramer's latest book, "Real Money: Sane Investing in an Insane World," click here to get his second book, "You Got Screwed!" and click here to order Cramer's autobiography, "Confessions of a Street Addict."
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