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RealMoney.com: James J. Cramer
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As AIG Unravels, Seize Any Bounce

By Jim Cramer
RealMoney.com Columnist

3/28/2005 8:55 AM EST
 
 AIG (AIG:NYSE) BEARISH
Price: $55.61  |  52-Week Range: $54.28-$77.36
  • AIG was a complex web of entities rather than a single company.
  • As with Enron and Fannie Mae, AIG may see a trading bounce.
  • If we get it, use it to exit.
Position: None



Now, what was that we liked about AIG (AIG - commentary - Cramer's Take)? The more I read about the complex web of entities that is AIG, instead of the smart, single company that I thought was AIG, the more I realize that Hank Greenberg may have fooled a lot of people with his brilliance. The latest development: The SEC has subpoenaed as many as a dozen AIG execs for its investigation of the company's accounting.

Oh, no doubt, Greenberg is smart. He created numerous products and entities that gave impressions of strength that everyone seemed to buy in to. Yet I can't help feeling that what Greenberg really did was trade on his own legend. Every time I read a story about AIG, I discover another privately held company that was "key" to AIG's earnings. Invariably, the privately held company was owned by insiders, including Greenberg himself.

Perhaps it's because I am engrossed in Conspiracy of Fools in my spare time, but the more I read about AIG, the more I think about Enron. Yeah, I know, invoking Enron's like invoking thermonuclear war; you don't want to do it too often. But you have to think that, with all of these private companies being so integral to AIG, AIG could report whatever the heck it wanted ... and it seems that it did!

I wonder if AIG itself even knows what it has, what it owns, what cash it keeps, what the books are saying. It seems almost too complicated for any one man -- including Greenberg -- to manage.

I am sure there will be a trading bounce here somewhere. There was in Enron. There was in Fannie Mae (FNM - commentary - Cramer's Take), another terrific analogue to AIG.

If you get it, take it.

Who can trust these guys anymore?







James J. Cramer is a director and co-founder of TheStreet.com. He contributes daily market commentary for TheStreet.com's sites and serves as an adviser to the company's CEO. Outside contributing columnists for TheStreet.com and RealMoney.com, including Cramer, may, from time to time, write about stocks in which they have a position. In such cases, appropriate disclosure is made. To see his personal portfolio and find out what trades Cramer will make before he makes them, sign up for Action Alerts PLUS by clicking here. While he cannot provide personalized investment advice or recommendations, he invites you to send comments on his column to jjcletters@thestreet.com. Listen to Cramer's RealMoney Radio show on your computer; just click here. Watch Cramer on "Mad Money" at 6 p.m. EST weeknights on CNBC. Click here to preorder Cramer's latest book, "Real Money: Sane Investing in an Insane World," click here to get his second book, "You Got Screwed!" and click here to order Cramer's autobiography, "Confessions of a Street Addict."

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