At 4 p.m. EST today, a trade should go on with Goldman Sachs (GS - commentary - Cramer's Take) that will put pressure on the stock. Some 3 million shares have to be sold at the closing bell to satisfy the new S&P 500 weightings.
I think this sale will show us whether the New York Stock Exchange has changed its ways or not. Under Richard Grasso, there really was no way to profit from this kind of thing. If you put an order in to buy at the bell at the market, you got picked off. If you put a limit in, it always traded ahead. Then, a few weeks later, you would read about a governor of the Exchange looking into what happened and you'd never hear about it again.
It was a given that these weighting changes were simply giveaways to the specialists: a much-needed shot in the arm for them, a total rip-off for everyone else. That we all knew this is part of the inherent nuttiness of this business. You didn't mess with Dick. You couldn't correct the system.
Now John Thain runs the place. Admittedly, he was a corporate finance guy, so maybe he didn't know how this stuff worked. I hope he is up to speed. Thain used to run Goldman. He knows how it trades. I bet he will be watching to see that this stuff is done fairly, which means there is real opportunity at the bell for the first time.
Why Goldman? The other Big Board stock that is going to be sold aggressively, Wal-Mart (WMT - commentary - Cramer's Take), already has been bid up. I saw it being taken up Thursday at the bell. That seems phony to me. I think that's a short-and-cover situation going on, but that you won't be able to get in on the block unless I am right and Thain's changed things. I don't want to own it, but I would short it and buy it at the bell if the place now is run honestly. I have less faith in the Wal-Mart situation, though, because I know Thain was at Goldman, not at Wal-Mart, and will be more focused on that bit of business.
Best trade of the day, if the place isn't rigged anymore.
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