Top 10 for 2009: Part I

At the inception of a bull market, the initial move is usually fast and furious. Already up by more than 20%, the new bull market that started Nov. 20 promises much more to come. The mountain of cash piled up on the sidelines is earning tic-tac-sized yields. What will drive that cash back into the market? Envy. Over the next two or three years, as investors compare their cash yields -- yields you can see only with a magnifying glass -- to what others are making in the new bull market, they'll eventually buy back into stocks (at much higher prices).

The most interesting aspect of the mega-bear market just past was the wholesale dumping of smaller stocks. Perfectly viable companies -- businesses that are certain to survive and thrive in the new cycle -- were hurled overboard like so much rubbish. The hurlers will be flush with embarrassment in a few years, when they look back and realize they willingly chucked assets at 25 cents on the dollar.

If you sift through the rubble of crushed stocks, you'll find scores of once-in-a-lifetime bargains, especially among smaller stocks. My list of top 10 stocks for 2009 is dominated by small companies. Below, I list the first five of those picks.

Atlas Air (AAWW - commentary - Cramer's Take): This company, a leader in the global air cargo business, owns the largest fleet of 747 freighter aircraft in the world. The stock trades at about $16 a share, down from $66 earlier this year. Normalized earnings of $4 a share are achievable next year, especially in light of the sizable drop in oil prices. The company's new 20-year deal with DHL makes a rebound in operations that much easier. I expect the stock to return to the $40-$50 range by 2010.

Brink's (BCO - commentary - Cramer's Take): Brinks is the oldest and largest player in the cash logistics and secure transportation space. The spinoff of Brink's Home Security (CFL - commentary - Cramer's Take) earlier this year adds a layer of complexity to the calculation of value -- there is a lot of number noise to sort through. In reality, though, this is a very simple business. Like a lot of the cheap stocks currently in the market, the current discount applied to this $23 stock is inexplicable. My calculation of value indicates its worth over $60 a share.

---

At time of publication, Alsin and/or ACM was long Office Depot, Brinks, Harman and USG, although holdings can change at any time.

Arne Alsin is the founder and principal of Alsin Capital Management, a California-based investment adviser. Under no circumstances does the information in this column represent a recommendation to buy or sell stocks. Alsin appreciates your feedback; click here to send him an email.