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RealMoney.com: Investing
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Bears Make a Case for the Bull

By Michael Brush
RealMoney.com Contributor

12/28/2006 7:23 AM EST
Click here for more stories by Michael Brush
 
 Market Analysis
  • A shortage in natural gas may make Chesapeake Energy a good pick for 2007.
  • Walter Industries is counting on a rise in oil price to take coal prices with it.
  • Infrastructure upgrades worldwide should make Mexico-based Cemex a winner next year.

Editor's note: This is Part 1 of Michael Brush's look at some of the bears' top stocks for 2007.



When you're a bull, I find it's always useful to check where the bears are putting their money. If their picks overlap with themes in the bull case, they might make for good stocks to add to my portfolio.

To state my bull case, I believe stocks could advance 10% next year because of the following factors:

  • Historically low interest rates.
  • Strong jobs and income growth that will fuel consumer spending.
  • A bottoming out in housing and in autos.
  • Continued developing market strength, which will spill over into the U.S. economy through a weakening dollar.
  • The unleashing of the formidable spending power at big cash-rich companies.
  • Decent valuations in stock markets that trade below historic price earnings multiples.

To round up some bears, I checked with Mark Hulbert at Hulbert Financial Digest, which ranks investment newsletters.

The best of these unsung market heroes regularly turn in market-beating returns and offer tips on how you can do the same for just a few hundred dollars a year.

At least two chart-topping newsletter writers with great long-term records are currently bears: Ruff Times editor Howard Ruff and Outstanding Investments editor Justice Litle.

Here's a quick look at some of their best picks for 2007 -- which also happen to fit in with my bullish-scenario themes such as continued high energy prices, a declining dollar and strong emerging markets.

Outstanding Investments

Litle identifies major economic and social trends around the globe. Then he finds stocks that will benefit. "Most of our picks are tied into major sea changes that are unfolding over a long period of time," says Litle. Outstanding Investments is up 36.9% a year on average over the past five years, according to Hulbert Financial Digest.

Litle's market call: He thinks that the odds of recession in the U.S. next year are high and that the consumer could weaken as the housing bubble continues to deflate. He's wary of the U.S. markets.

In contrast, he sees "surprising strength" in developing-world economies -- one of the macro themes he's betting on for 2007. Other big-picture themes he's playing include:

  • The increasing scarcity of oil and natural gas.
  • Infrastructure development in emerging economies.
  • The growing value of precious metals like gold because of policies around the globe that increase money supplies and weaken the dollar.
  • Go to NEXT PAGE


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    At the time of publication, Brush was short Chesapeake Energy puts, although positions may change at any time.

    Brush is an award-winning New York-based financial writer. In addition to writing for RealMoney, he has a weekly market column on MSN Money called Company Focus, and a column called Insiders Corner at InvestorIdeas.com. Brush has covered business and investing for The New York Times, Money magazine and the Economist Group. He studied at Columbia Business School in the Knight-Bagehot Fellowship program and the Johns Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies. He is the author of Lessons From the Front Line, a book that offers insights on investing and the markets based on the experiences of professional money managers.

    Under no circumstances does the information in this column represent a recommendation to buy or sell stocks. Brush appreciates your feedback; click here to send him an email.

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