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RealMoney.com: Investing
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Following Insiders to the Exit

By Jonathan Moreland
RealMoney.com Contributor

5/19/2006 11:34 AM EDT
Click here for more stories by Jonathan Moreland
 
 Investing
  • Vitesse will likely be a bargain again.
  • The supply/demand equation is likely to remain on the side of oil exploration and production firms.
  • WMS could achieve an upside earnings surprise in fiscal 2007.

My picks over the last few months could be categorized as the good, the bad and the postponed. Let's start with the bad, since that is much easier to see right now.



My insider-based market indicators are looking pretty ominous. I went to 40% cash last week, and will likely be up to 75% by the end of this week.

Raising cash has been easy lately. With so many stocks trading sharply down for little reason, mental or actual stops are being hit on nearly a daily basis. And when a stock comes down for good reason, it's even more of a no-brainer to get out. Such was the case with Vitesse Semiconductor (VTSS - commentary - Cramer's Take), which I last recommended buying on Feb. 3.

In a March 18 article, The Wall Street Journal named the company as one of many where options grants seemed to be given out just before stock-moving news was released. I was not particularly concerned by the article. Maybe I'm just jaded, but I didn't believe it would cause great waves, let alone the wholesale sacking of Vitesse's top executives.

Certainly, the gaming of options grants isn't fair to shareholders: Money is drained from company coffers as a result of options being exercised at lower strike prices than they should have been. Under the new option expensing rules, the lower strike prices also raise option expenses of companies commensurately, and affect stated earnings.

Even so, it seemed to me that the effects of any restatement due to unfair pricing on Vitesse's financial statement would be minor. Even the WSJ article pointed out that a Vitesse executive's $23.1 million options take in the late 1990s would have been reduced by "only" $1.4 million had the timing been different.

But the gig was up when the company announced late in April that an accounting probe found further issues with revenue recognition. That issue was too much for my investment thesis, which was built around the growing acceptance of the company's new product lines.

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At the time of publication, Moreland was long Seitel, WMS, PetroQuest and Goodrich Petroleum, although holdings can change at any time.

Jonathan Moreland is director of research and publisher of the weekly publication InsiderInsights, founder of the Web site InsiderInsights.com and the director of research at Insider Asset Management LLC. Under no circumstances does the information in this column represent a recommendation to buy or sell stocks. While he cannot provide investment advice or recommendations, Moreland appreciates your feedback; click here to send him an email.

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