Top 10 Turnarounds for 2006, Part 2

It doesn't make a lot of sense to be bullish right now. The yield curve is as flat as a pancake, and the Federal Reserve appears resolute in its plan to push short-term rates still higher. That means the yield curve will soon invert, a dynamic that has been followed by recession in every instance over the last 100 years, with two exceptions. And in both of those exceptions, a no-growth economy barely skirted a recessionary decline.

While backward-looking governmental statistics show that the economy continues to grow, forward-looking evidence continues to mount that we may be facing a slowdown in the near term. In conversations I've had recently with professionals in the mortgage business, home construction, real estate and new cars, the response is amazingly uniform: A slowdown has already started.

In the face of a potentially difficult economic backdrop, how can a value investor justify taking new equity positions? One reason is stark in its simplicity: because value materially exceeds price. Another reason is that historically, stocks always launch a major rally in the midst of economic turbulence. Over the last 100 years, the equity market has never failed to rally in advance of the end of a recession. In one case, the rally began at the beginning of a recession.

Investors who get in front, who take positions in advance of fundamental improvement, perform better than those who wait for the evidence of a turn. I believe that will be the case for the turnarounds recommended below, the second set of picks for my two-part series, Top 10 Turnarounds for 2006. (Click here to read Part 1.)

Commerce Bank

On an earnings basis, Commerce Bancorp (CBH - commentary - Cramer's Take) is struggling with the worst interest rate environment in many years. Operationally, the business is not struggling at all; the company is growing deposits at well over a 25% annual clip, while taking market share in every region in which it competes.

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At time of publication, Alsin and/or ACM was long Commerce Bancorp, 1-800-Flowers.com, Blockbuster, TJX Companies and Wild Oats, although holdings can change at any time.

Arne Alsin is the founder and principal of Alsin Capital Management, an Oregon-based investment advisor, and portfolio manager of The Turnaround Fund, a no-load mutual fund. Under no circumstances does the information in this column represent a recommendation to buy or sell stocks. Alsin appreciates your feedback; click here to send him an email.