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RealMoney.com: homebuilders
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For What It's Worth, LEN Call Was Upbeat

By Scott Rothbort
RealMoney Contributor

3/27/2008 1:14 PM EDT
Click here for more stories by Scott Rothbort
 
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Updated from 3:57 p.m. EDT on March 26.

 
After opening slightly lower, Lennar (LEN - commentary - Cramer's Take) rallied right through the conference call and is up about 6% on the day as the conference call ended. This was the most upbeat conference call that I have heard from a homebuilder in many quarters.

No kidding.

It was not giddy, but there were some data points that indicated that a bottom may have been reached and that a turn may be at hand. We certainly got that "glimmer of hope" that Robert Toll of Toll Brothers (TOL - commentary - Cramer's Take) was talking about.

Lennar's balance sheet is in fine shape, and it appears that impairments may be slowing down or perhaps ending. The company works off its inventories in a smoother basis than Hovnanian (HOV - commentary - Cramer's Take), which had a tough first quarter because of the front-loading of sales in the fourth quarter when it ran its big sales.

Lennar reported a first quarter loss of 56 cents per share, which includes 38 cents in charges related to writedowns and impairments. Revenue for the quarter was $1.1 billion.

Some other homebuilding metrics include the following:

  • deliveries of 3.596 homes (down 60% year over year);
  • new home orders of 3,045 homes (down 57% year over year);
  • backlogs of $1.2 billion (down 67%);
  • and cancellation rate of 26%.
CEO Stuart Miller, at the beginning of the conference call, had these observations and statements:
  • "The only real bright spot today is that, when the news has become particularly dire and has been confirmed in some way, the government and other market forces have acted quickly and decisively. And while we might argue or suggest that actions are late, they do nonetheless suggest that there is a floor out there where enough negative news confirmed will result in enough action to bring on sustainable stabilization, and it seems that we are now nearing that point of confirmation."
  • After noting the improvement in margins, Miller added that the company expects it "will see, in coming quarters, a stabilization and hopefully improvement in margins that begin to mark trends."
  • Standing inventory levels are extremely low. Current new construction costs are defining the cost structure of most deliveries, particularly as Lennar enters the third quarter.
  • The balance sheet has been fortified, and Lennar has a substantial cash position.
  • Lennar has done the heavy lifting on impairments and is now situated with assets that can and will produce improving markets when the rate of decline and market pricing subsides. Miller believes that, even with continued degradation of market conditions, the stated asset base will not suffer nearly the level of impairment that Lennar has taken to date.
Inventory and balance sheet management have greatly helped to navigate the troubled market. Cash of $1.1 billion was held on the balance sheet, and there were no outstanding balances on revolving credit lines. Inclusive of impairments, debt-to-capital declined year over year to 24.5% from 28.6%. Inventory levels declined from $8.3 billion to $4.6 billion (down 45% year over year). Finished homes and construction in progress inventory was reduced from $4.2 billion to $2.3 billion (down 46% year over year). Land under development was reduced from $3.6 billion to $1.5 billion (down 57%). Finally, unsold inventory was reduced by 58% year over year.

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At the time of publication, Rothbort had no positions in the stocks mentioned, although positions can change at any time.

Scott Rothbort has over 20 years of experience in the financial services industry. In 2002, Rothbort founded LakeView Asset Management, LLC, a registered investment advisor based in Millburn, N.J., which offers customized individually managed separate accounts, including proprietary long/short strategies to its high net worth clientele.

Immediately prior to that, Rothbort worked at Merrill Lynch for 10 years, where he was instrumental in building the global equity derivative business and managed the global equity swap business from its inception. Rothbort previously held international assignments in Tokyo, Hong Kong and London while working for Morgan Stanley and County NatWest Securities.

Rothbort holds an MBA in finance and international business from the Stern School of Business of New York University and a BS in economics and accounting from the Wharton School of Business of the University of Pennsylvania. He is a Professor of Finance and the Chief Market Strategist for the Stillman School of Business of Seton Hall University.

For more information about Scott Rothbort and LakeView Asset Management, LLC, visit the company's Web site at www.lakeviewasset.com. Scott appreciates your feedback; click here to send him an email.



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