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RealMoney.com: Futures Shock
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In Indices, Factors Matter; Size Doesn't

By Howard Simons
RealMoney.com Contributor

8/2/2005 10:07 AM EDT
 
 Indexing
  • Index performance is affected by its composition.
  • Economic factors have played a greater role in the outperformance or underperformance of an index than size or market cap.
  • Know the weighting, size and philosophy of your index funds.



David Merkel posed the question last Friday in the Columnist Conversation of why we keep hearing the phrase "four-year high." What was left unasked, and is seldom asked outside of the pension fund consulting community -- you know, the crowd for whom $10 billion is pocket change -- is why we have so many indices and how their performances differ. This is a real money question for RealMoney readers; when these elephants dance, the ground shakes.

In truth, no index fund manager or investor could disagree with the statement that performance is affected by the composition of the index involved. The most common dimensions on which indices are segmented from the entire population of stocks are capitalization, growth vs. value and business composition.

In homage to Heisenberg's famous Uncertainty Principle, we cannot subdivide a population along any single dimension without affecting the distribution of all other possible dimensions. Where you draw the line on classifying a stock as, say, middle- or small-capitalization affects the resulting composition of the index along dimensions of, say, growth or exposure to the energy industry. As an aside, we should ask the question of why the investment management community feels comfortable treating capitalization differences as critical and then has no problem whatsoever, as discussed here in May, in lumping completely unrelated commodities together.

Big Differences in Small Stocks

Such has been the case with small-stock benchmarks. Let's take two benchmark indices, the Russell 2000 (RTY) and the S&P 600 (SML). The former includes the smallest 2,000 stocks within the Russell 3000 index, the latter the smallest 600 stocks within the S&P 1500 index. The names alone would suggest different average sizes, and unless the distribution of other dimensions is uniform throughout the population and perfectly uncorrelated to the dimension of size, we know we will have indices with different performances.

Let's compare the total returns of the RTY and the SML through a set of time intervals ending Friday, July 29. To investigate the commonly held belief that the SML benefits from its greater exposure to middle-capitalization issues, let's add the Russell 2500 (R2500) into the mix; these are stocks 501-3,000 in the Russell universe.

Total Returns of Selected Indices Through July
April 30, 2005 Period December 31, 2004 July 31, 2004 Annualized May 9, 2003
S&P 600 16.72 7.93% 27.27 29.98
Russell 2000 17.72 5.05% 24.90 27.66
Russell 2500 15.60 6.58% 25.49 27.29
Source: Bloomberg, Howard Simons

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Howard L. Simons is president of Simons Research, a strategist for Bianco Research, a trading consultant and the author of The Dynamic Option Selection System. Under no circumstances does the information in this column represent a recommendation to buy or sell securities. While Simons cannot provide investment advice or recommendations, he appreciates your feedback; click here to send him an email.

TheStreet.com has a revenue-sharing relationship with Amazon.com under which it receives a portion of the revenue from Amazon purchases by customers directed there from TheStreet.com.

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