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RealMoney.com: FaceOff - Glenn Curtis
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Boeing's Near-Term Issues Outweigh Its Long-Term Promise

By Glenn Curtis
Columnist

8/1/2002 7:55 AM EDT
 

Let me begin by saying that I like Boeing (BA - commentary - Cramer's Take) -- for the long haul. But if you've been sitting on the sidelines, waiting for just the right time to jump in, you may want to hold off a bit longer. Here's why.

According to the Commerce Department, orders for durable goods -- including aircraft -- fell 3.8% in June, much more than the 0.7% dip most economists were expecting. One big drag on that data was a 47% drop in orders for new aircraft.

Even beyond the macro picture, take a look at what's happening with the airlines these days. National and regional players alike are marking down their fares in an effort to pick up, or sustain, market share. Plus, they're getting hammered by increasing fuel and security costs. Like it or not, this will translate into lower capital spending in 2003.

I'm also concerned about several company-specific issues as well. For starters, Boeing is investing a significant portion of its free cash flow into Boeing Capital, which essentially leases aircraft to its airline customers. (Total customer financing for the second quarter came to $11.62 billion, which was a $522 million sequential increase from the first quarter.) Now, obviously, this isn't a problem when the domestic economy is humming and the travel business is frothy. But given the lackluster outlook for leisure and business travel over the next six to nine months, the company seems to be making a risky bet that the commercial market (from which it derives roughly 60% of its revenue) is going to rebound sharply.

Yet another concern is that Boeing will soon be engaged in new contract negotiations with its unions. I'm not suggesting a strike is imminent. But from what I understand, the union is very upset the company has increasingly outsourced maintenance and manufacturing deals to foreign workers.

Will this problem work itself out? Probably. But you know how these negotiations work: Each side waits until the last second to hammer out a deal. And what do you think is going to happen to the stock while the bickering is going on?

Bottom line: Boeing is a terrific company. Over the long haul, I think the stock will fare just fine. But near term, macro and company-specific concerns make me think that a better entry point probably lies down the road.

To read Odette Galli's take on Boeing, please click here.



Face-Off: Aug. 1

Who won this FaceOff?

   Odette
   Glenn
   








In keeping with TSC's editorial policy, Glenn Curtis doesn't own or short individual stocks. He also doesn't invest in hedge funds or other private investment partnerships. While he cannot provide personalized investment advice or recommendations, he invites you to send comments on his column to Glenn.Curtis@realmoney.com. Curtis is also the author of the TheStreet.com's, Era of Value -- a premium subscription newsletter containing Glenn's model value portfolio, in-depth analysis, specific value stock picks and investing recommendations. Click here for a free two-week trial subscription to Era of Value.
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