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Let me begin by saying that I like Boeing (BA - commentary - Cramer's Take) -- for the long haul. But if you've been sitting on the sidelines, waiting for just the right time to jump in, you may want to hold off a bit longer. Here's why.
According to the Commerce Department, orders for durable goods -- including aircraft -- fell 3.8% in June, much more than the 0.7% dip most economists were expecting. One big drag on that data was a 47% drop in orders for new aircraft.
I'm also concerned about several company-specific issues as well. For starters, Boeing is investing a significant portion of its free cash flow into Boeing Capital, which essentially leases aircraft to its airline customers. (Total customer financing for the second quarter came to $11.62 billion, which was a $522 million sequential increase from the first quarter.) Now, obviously, this isn't a problem when the domestic economy is humming and the travel business is frothy. But given the lackluster outlook for leisure and business travel over the next six to nine months, the company seems to be making a risky bet that the commercial market (from which it derives roughly 60% of its revenue) is going to rebound sharply. Yet another concern is that Boeing will soon be engaged in new contract negotiations with its unions. I'm not suggesting a strike is imminent. But from what I understand, the union is very upset the company has increasingly outsourced maintenance and manufacturing deals to foreign workers. Bottom line: Boeing is a terrific company. Over the long haul, I think the stock will fare just fine. But near term, macro and company-specific concerns make me think that a better entry point probably lies down the road.
In keeping with TSC's editorial policy, Glenn Curtis doesn't own or short individual stocks. He also doesn't invest in hedge funds or other private investment partnerships. While he cannot provide personalized investment advice or recommendations, he invites you to send comments on his column to Glenn.Curtis@realmoney.com.
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