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RealMoney.com: Energy
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Halliburton: Buy-on-the-Dip First Needs a Dip

By Andrew White
RealMoney contributor

10/22/2007 12:43 PM EDT
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Updated from 10/19/2007 4:03 p.m. EDT with earnings review

 


Excluding unusual items, Halliburton (HAL - commentary - Cramer's Take) reported third quarter (ended September) fully-diluted earnings per share of 66 cents (+14% vs. earnings for the same quarter last year/+3% positive surprise) on revenue of $3.9 billion (+16% vs. same quarter last year/+3% positive surprise). Comparables to 2006 exclude now-separated KBR operations. Results reflected strength in Middle Eastern and Asian operations (amid record oil prices), despite the continued weak North American market.

Middle Eastern/Asian operations' revenue jumped +28% and operating income rose +31%. However, the soft North American underbelly is the real story today. North American revenue increased 6%, while operating income fell 13%. Despite the loss, this overall performance is remarkable, given two weeks' storm-related downtime in the Gulf of Mexico and price declines in pressure pumping. It's too early to call an end to the industry's North American difficulties, but perhaps the worst is now in the past (i.e., 2008 recovery). HAL also used free cash flow to repurchase 11 million more shares in the quarter (or 1% of previously outstanding fully diluted shares).

Schlumberger (SLB - commentary - Cramer's Take) positively surprised on Friday and its shares were pummeled 11%. The next business day, HAL positively surprises and gains back over half of its SLB-related drubbing (i.e., up as much as 4% in morning trading). HAL shares are once again teasing all-time highs, but are unlikely to break out near-term given short-term technicals and market/industry share pressure (e.g., SLB fell another 3% this morning). HAL will probably pull back to its narrow five-year, upward-trending price channel. New industry-relative discount valuation will then further highlight HAL's existing one-third discount valuation to its own trading history (despite strong earnings). A buy-on-the-dip trade will then become a tremendously good idea, oil price conditional.

Halliburton Preview: A Buy-on-Dip Opportunity?

Halliburton (HAL - commentary - Cramer's Take) is scheduled to report third-quarter 2007 earnings in a conference call at 10:30 a.m. EDT on Monday, Oct. 22. The current consensus estimate for fully diluted quarterly earnings per share is 64 cents (+10% vs. earnings for the same quarter last year) on revenue of $3.87 billion (-34% vs. same quarter last year/includes now-separated KBR operations in 2006 comparable). The company has a fair record of meeting or exceeding expectations, and current quarterly expectations have been effectively unchanged for months despite record oil prices. A positive surprise is likely, though perhaps not beneficial as might be hoped.

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At the time of publication, White held no positions in the stocks mentioned.



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