Don't Try to Game the Fed

There's still no oomph to the upside. But it doesn't look like the bears will get much oomph on the downside today either. All eyes, rightly or wrongly, are on the pending release of the Fed minutes and some random speeches from other Fed heads today. As always, such groupthink can certainly make for market moves of some magnitude, but it's nothing that can be effectively or smartly gamed.

If you try to game it, you'll have to first guess what nuances of a difference there will be in the new information flow from the Fed today vs. what it was the last time you got some Fed head info flow. And then you'll have to guess how the market will interpret that change.

Then, assuming you got all those nuances and rather subjective guesses right, you'll have to determine what the sentiment in the market around those nuances and changes are. Are the bulls overexposed? Are the shorts pressing too hard?

With the market in muddled mode and earnings season starting, it'd sure be tough to argue either. Let the Fed heads speak their piece, but don't waste time and energy trying to game it.

At the time of publication, the firm in which Willard is a partner had no postions in the stocks mentioned, although positions can change at any time and without notice.

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At the time of publication, the firm in which Willard is a partner had no postions in the stocks mentioned, although positions can change at any time and without notice.

Cody Willard is the manager of CL Willard Capital Management, LLC. He is a regular guest on Fox News, CNBC and other networks, and he writes a monthly column for the Financial Times. He is also an adjunct professor at Seton Hall University and the author of TheCodyReport.net, a monthly stock market newsletter. Willard appreciates your feedback -- click here to send him an email.