Flip It: A Reality Check

I'm pretty sure we have to call today a victory for the bulls -- but then again ...

The market is churning through recent gains in a pretty straightforward manner lately. Beta, which measures the volatility of a stock relative to the market, seems to be the biggest driving factor of most stock moves.

Low-beta stocks like Microsoft (MSFT - commentary - Cramer's Take) are down nearly in line with the market during its decline from recent highs. Higher-beta stocks like Broadcom (BRCM - commentary - Cramer's Take) and Texas Instruments (TXN - commentary - Cramer's Take) are down a multiple of the market's decline.

But there is a little problem with declaring the nature of such action outright bullish: the flipside. Here's the "flip it" argument: When individual fundamentals unique to a company don't seem to matter to the direction of its stock price, regardless of expectations around those fundies, it's time for reality to settle back into the market. And it's a darn good point.

On another note, check out the comments (13 at last count) in response to my post about my bullishness on Vista's potential. Not a single one agrees with me. I'd also note that I got about 10 emails on the subject, and again, not a single one of those emails agreed with my bullish assessment.

Anecdotal to be sure, zero for 23 would get anybody not on a team owned, managed or coached by Isiah benched for good. It's pretty remarkable, really. I think everybody is underestimating the Vista cycle. I'll give you a few more Vista-related stock picks in coming days.

Believe it or not, you'll be able to catch me on CNBC Asia tonight at 6:45 p.m. ET. No rest for the wicked indeed, Gramps! See you tomorrow.

At the time of publication, the firm in which Willard is a partner was net long Microsoft, although positions can change at any time and without notice.

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Cody Willard is the manager of a hedge fund and a contributor to the Financial Times and VON Magazine. He is also a regular guest on CNBC's Kudlow & Company and an adjunct professor at Seton Hall.

He earned a bachelor's degree in economics at the University of New Mexico. Willard appreciates your feedback -- click here to send him an email.