The Safe Tech Stock

I told Larry Kudlow on air the other day that I thought Microsoft (MSFT - commentary - Cramer's Take) at $23 might be the best opportunity of my investment lifetime. And that does indeed include Apple (AAPL - commentary - Cramer's Take) at $7 and Google (GOOG - commentary - Cramer's Take) on the day it went public.

How can I be serious?

Look, it's not as if I expect Microsoft to match the 1,000% return the remaining Apple common stock I have on my sheets is up. But I do think Microsoft will be a leader in any new Nasdaq bull phase. (As an aside, does this utter trashing in the last two weeks mean we need to start an entirely new bull market or that we've already shifted into a bear market? No answers to that one until we can look back.)

In a nutshell, why do I like Softee so much here? Because I see $1 or $2 as the risk on the downside and $20 or so on the upside. You can get upset at me for thinking that. But I would note to you that in the last couple weeks Microsoft has stayed right around $23, which is the level at which I've been jumping up and down and screaming about it as a buying opportunity, while the Nasdaq, which is full of all those stocks that everyone tells me are better than Microsoft, is down nearly 10% over the same period.

I continue to think that Microsoft is much safer than most other tech stocks in the near term and that there's a lot of potential upside in the intermediate term.

Regardless, I sure think it's awfully presumptuous to think that the high-growth cycle that could come with the new chipsets and operating systems is over before those products are even out. Don't you?

P.S. I'll be joining Kudlow and John Rutledge tonight for a one-hour long discussion on a wide range of topics, including China, immigration and the markets.

At the time of publication, the firm in which Willard is a partner was net long MSFT, GOOG and AAPL, although positions can change at any time and without notice.

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Cody Willard is the manager of a hedge fund, author of The Telecom Connection, a newsletter published by TheStreet.com and a contributor to the Financial Times and VON Magazine. He is also a regular guest on CNBC's Kudlow & Company and an adjunct professor at Seton Hall.

He earned a bachelor's degree in economics at the University of New Mexico. Willard appreciates your feedback -- click here to send him an email.