The Future of Stocks

"The future. What's that?"
-- Belisario of the Nukak-Maku in Columbia

Good morning and welcome back to the future. I phrase this morning's opening that way not just because I've loved that classic flick since I saw it at as a kid, but also because we're already in the future. And today, believe it or not, I'm not referencing technology as delivering the future, but stocks themselves.

This economy has been steadily expanding and growing for quarters upon quarters. In fact, according to E.S. Browning in today's WSJ, this is the longest boom of double-digit corporate profits since the 1950s. When you listen to the conference calls, shop at just about any store in the U.S., surf the Internet, or even talk with salespeople or entrepreneurs in your local town, it's clear that the economy has been a net benefit to earnings (and society!) over the four years since we exited the tech depression in 2002.

And the permabears promised a collapse in the stock market every step of the way, from a coming horrid recession or even depression to a single-digit Intel (INTC - commentary - Cramer's Take) stock price. They were wrong and wrong again and, because they've cost so many people (and therefore all of us in society) so much money with their fearmongering, I'll say it one more time: the permabears have been dead wrong.

But that doesn't mean they'll stay wrong forever.

I sure don't think we're about to collapse into an economic depression or that the stock markets are about to crash. But the market has made a huge run from those lows and the economy is currently in such a boom that I do think it's time to take something off the table.

This doesn't mean I'm selling everything and going short. But it does mean that my long positions are much smaller than they have been. I'll certainly look to get aggressive again (and if the economy and the markets reverse, that aggression might very well be on the short side), but for the time being, I'm going to focus mostly on cash and Microsoft (MSFT - commentary - Cramer's Take), along with my long-held favorites like Apple (AAPL - commentary - Cramer's Take), Google (GOOG - commentary - Cramer's Take) and others. A tech echo-bubble is certainly still on the table, but I'm just not going to bet on it kicking off today.

After all, as highlighted in the amazing story on the cover of today's New York Times, about how 80 people from the nomadic Nukak-Maku walked into a Colombian town and proclaimed that they want to join our global community in whole so they can gain access to education, health care and even the concepts of government, money and ownership: Nobody knows the future.

At the time of publication, the firm in which Willard is a partner was net long INTC, MSFT, GOOG and AAPL, although positions can change at any time and without notice.

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Cody Willard is the manager of a hedge fund, author of The Telecom Connection, a newsletter published by TheStreet.com and a contributor to the Financial Times and VON Magazine. He is also a regular guest on CNBC's Kudlow & Company and an adjunct professor at Seton Hall.

He earned a bachelor's degree in economics at the University of New Mexico. Willard appreciates your feedback -- click here to send him an email.