 |
|
|
|
|
||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
  RSS FEEDS |
I was going to complain about yesterday's rally. I was going to point out the low volume. I was going to point out the failure in the number of stocks making new highs (on both the Nasdaq and the NYSE). I was even going to point out that the oscillator cannot seem to manage a new high. But then I saw CMGI (CMGI - commentary - Cramer's Take) go by on the tape and found I just had to look at that stock of a bygone era.
But look at CMGI's performance in the recent rally. The stock is up about 50%. In the May rally it was up "only" 30%. In the March rally it was up "only" 30% as well. But this time it is zooming ahead. Something else that bears notice in the chart is that it did not start zooming in August when the market bottomed; instead it only started zooming a few weeks ago in late October.  But let's go back to CMGI. It really does seem to be trying to bottom, but it has so much resistance at that $1.75 area that I cannot imagine it will get through without doing some more work between $1.50 and there.  And that brings us to the lagging Philadelphia Semiconductor Index (SOX). Talk about a chart that just can't get through resistance. How many times has it been turned back from that 425 area? This chart shows how important that 425 area is, because it is not only resistance from previous rally attempts, but it is also where the downtrend line comes in. I have written about that resistance level in the SOX several times. I show a little gap on the chart between 425 and 430-440, so should the SOX manage to get through 425 we could see it rally as if it were being pulled up right through to fill the gap. Now, wouldn't that just fuel the speculation out there if the SOX got through 425?  In the meantime, I continue to be skeptical of a rally where the new highs are lagging and the oscillator cannot make a new high. Not to mention the fact that the put/call ratio's 10-day moving average is at the bottom of the chart page and now curling upward. But then again, I said I would not complain about that stuff today!
Overbought/Oversold OscillatorsFor more explanation of these indicators, check out The Chartist's primer.  
Helene Meisler, based in Shanghai, writes a technical analysis column on the U.S. equity markets and updates her charts daily. Meisler trained at several Wall Street firms, including Goldman Sachs and SG Cowen, and has worked with the equity trading department at Cargill. At time of publication, she held no positions in any securities mentioned in this column, although holdings can change at any time. Under no circumstances does the information in this column represent a recommendation to buy or sell stocks. She appreciates your feedback and invites you to send it to hmeisler@thestreet.com.
Brokerage Partners
|
|||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||||
| Subscribe to our RSS Feed |
© 1996- TheStreet.com, Inc. All rights reserved. |
PODCASTS
