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RealMoney.com : Reality Test


The Investor's Survival Guide

By Ben Stein
Special to TheStreet.com

12/05/2001 07:07 AM EST

What we aim to give here in this space is news you can use. It is hard for me to think of news you can use more than advice on whether to buy or sell a specific investment.

There are legions of fine men and women out there telling you it is time to buy. Hardly any of us are telling you to think twice and consider carefully before you do buy. So, my investment psychologist guru Phil DeMuth and I have worked out a simple checklist for you to run through. Print it now, and keep it next to your stock records. Refer to it when you are thinking of buying. It may save you many sleepless nights.

The DeMuth/Stein Investment Suitability Test

1) Does this investment diversify or concentrate your holdings? If it concentrates them, have you thought about why you want to concentrate them in a period of high investment uncertainty and uniquely high price-to-earnings ratios?

2) Considering all of your assets and liabilities, does this investment increase or decrease your risk to price changes because of interest-rate moves, political events, terrorism, foreign currency dangers and terrorism?

3) Does this investment increase or decrease your risk profile in the event the recession lingers? What about if inflation revives?

4) Does this investment add to your sense of security if pessimism grips the market again?

5) How liquid is this investment? If it is at all illiquid, what's your reasoning for decreasing your liquidity?

6) If you had to sell this investment at a 50% loss, commonplace in securities, how would this affect your financial security? How about a 90% loss, which has happened frequently lately? How would such an event affect your financial security? How would it affect your health? Your marriage?

7) Could you retire if you lost 90% on this investment? How about 50%? If there is any question about this, why are you running the risk?

8) If you lost 50% of this investment, how long would it take for you to regain that amount? That is, after earning it, paying taxes on it, spending what you must spend on life, how long would it take to save (not earn) the amount you would have lost?

9) What would your situation be if the investment fell in value by 50% and you lost your job?

10) Why are you buying this investment? What do you realistically expect its earnings to be? What do you realistically expect the rate of return to be?

11) If you had to try to sell this investment to your most skeptical friend, what would you say? If you had to try to sell it to Warren Buffett, what would you say to him? What do you think he would say to you?

12) Very important: Is this an investment you will only be able to sell at a good price if there is a willing suspension of disbelief by buyers en masse? That is, can you only sell it at a good price in a bubble environment?

13) Have you done enough research about this investment?

14) How does this company (if it's a stock or a bond) make money or how will it make money in the future? Do you understand what the company does?

15) Is someone trying to persuade you to buy this? What is her interest in such a sale?

16) Has the seller said there is some urgency to buy? Why is there urgency?

17) Do you know the broker selling this item? Do you trust him? Would you trust him with your children's future?

18) Is there a reason this investment is better than other similar investments?

19) What makes you think now is a good time to buy?

20) What's your history of investment success that makes you think that you are good at making this kind of investment?

Now, I am sure, and Dr. DeMuth is sure, that there are other cautions that would help you to make your investment decisions, but these might help.




Benjamin J. Stein has been a trial lawyer, a White House speechwriter for former Presidents Nixon and Ford and a campaign speechwriter for Reagan. He has been a columnist for The Wall Street Journal and written for publications including Barron's, New York magazine and Los Angeles magazine. He is a novelist, a nonfiction book writer and a screenwriter, and he has been an expert witness on financial fraud. Under no circumstances does the information in this column represent a recommendation to buy or sell stocks. At time of publication, Stein had no positions in the stocks mentioned in this column, although positions can change at any time. While Stein cannot provide investment advice or recommendations, he invites you to send your feedback to Ben Stein.
Read our conflicts and disclosure policy.
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