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York InternationalHere's a stock nobody's talking about: York International (YRK - commentary - Cramer's Take) is a leading manufacturer of air conditioning and refrigeration products. After successfully implementing a series of major structural changes, York's profit margins are set to lift in the new cycle. Coincident with higher profits, expect a higher share price. I'm looking for $50 by year-end. York closed Friday at $37.02, down 33 cents.
Toys R UsToys R Us (TOY - commentary - Cramer's Take) has only converted roughly 60% of its store base to the new "Mission Possible" format, which generates higher sales than the older, staid format. With the balance of the store base due to be converted this year, expect a stronger sales base with higher margins. I expect this stock to trade north of $30 in 2002. It ended Friday at $19.63, down 34 cents.
ConexantConexant (CNXT - commentary - Cramer's Take) has become the most controversial stock in my portfolio. That's just because it is a low-dollar tech stock, and that's what everyone likes. It shouldn't be controversial. It is simply a breakup story with good fundamentals, and it takes patience for the three parts to get spun out. If you don't have that patience, vamoose, please. Conexant inched up 6 cents Friday to end the day at $14.
General DynamicsGeneral Dynamics (GD - commentary - Cramer's Take) is the cheapest stock in the portfolio because I believe that the nation's defense budget will be ratcheted up severely over the course of the next two years. Share price is also down below $80, which makes me want to buy more as soon as I can. It closed Friday at $77.40, off $1.87
CendantI like Cendant (CD - commentary - Cramer's Take) because the bad news has already been factored into the stock. (Fewer people are traveling, and that's already had an adverse impact on its travel business.) I also like it because management has done a terrific job of trimming costs and has recently upped its guidance in 2002 from $1.15 to $1.25 a share, citing synergies from its Galileo and Cheap Tickets acquisitions as well as growth from its core businesses. Cendant ended the week at $19.15, down 9 cents.
Office DepotI like Office Depot (ODP - commentary - Cramer's Take) because it also is oversold. And management has done a great job managing its inventories, growing same-store-sales numbers and trimming costs even in the face of a recession. And when the economy does pick up in the second half of the year -- look out. Office Depot picked up 6 cents in trading Friday to close at $16.84.
U.S. BancorpU.S Bancorp (USB - commentary - Cramer's Take), a Minneapolis bank holding company formed by the combination of U.S. Bank and Milwaukee's Firstar, has struggled with integration and portfolio cleanup issues and has underperformed its large, regional bank peers. However, with growing pains out of the way, the nation's eighth-largest commercial bank has a powerful internal growth engine from its core commercial banking business, trust and wealth management division, commercial payment services and investment banking arm, Piper Jaffray. Lately trading at around $21 with earnings potential of $1.90 per share in 2002, the stock trades at about an 18% discount to the Philadelphia Stock Exchange/KBW Bank index. Add to that a 3.5% yield and management now focused on building shareholder value, including a recently announced $100 million buyback, and you have a formula for solid performance in the year ahead. A recovering economy and multiple expansion won't hurt either. U.S. Bancorp lost 63 cents to end at $20.37 Friday.
Alberta EnergyWith natural gas trading close to $2 per million British Thermal Units and everybody hating the energy stocks, Alberta Energy (AOG - commentary - Cramer's Take) is a good contrarian play. Alberta is the largest Canadian producer of natural gas with production across North America. Like other natural gas stocks, Alberta was rocked in 2001 as natural gas demand and prices plummeted. However, with depletion of existing natural gas production accelerating, supply and demand should rebalance with a higher price bias. Alberta has hedged 30% of its 2002 production at above-market prices assuring stable cash flows while leaving room to benefit from higher prices. Look for Alberta's earnings to stabilize in the first quarter and move higher through the year, with $3-plus in 2002 per-share earnings not out of the question. And, Alberta should also benefit from the resurgence of consolidation talk in the Canadian oil patch. You want to buy energy stocks when nobody else wants to own them -- understanding that patience will be rewarded. Alberta closed Friday at $35.02, down 3 cents. This is the second part of the RealMoney All-Star Super Portfolio. Be sure to check out Part 1, if you haven't already. Under no circumstances does the information in this column represent a recommendation to buy or sell stocks.
HealthsouthMy first pick is Healthsouth (HRC - commentary - Cramer's Take), a provider of outpatient surgery, rehabilitation and diagnostic services. The stock is extraordinarily cheap for a leading health care company; it's currently trading at 11 times cash EPS and six times EV/EBITDA. The company should benefit from the trend toward outpatient services and new government reimbursement programs. Healthsouth should generate solid, stable revenue and earnings growth over the next few years, despite the difficult economy. The stock gained 14 cents Friday to close at $13.39.
Dave and Buster'sMy second pick is Dave and Buster's (DAB - commentary - Cramer's Take), a leading entertainment/restaurant operator. The stock is compellingly cheap at seven to nine times calendar 2002 earnings and three to four times EV/EBITDA. The company has recently hired new managers and altered corporate strategy to focus on profitability vs. store growth. Their closest comparable company, CEC Entertainment (CEC - commentary - Cramer's Take) (Chuck E. Cheese's Pizza) trades for 18 times 2002 profits, leaving DAB ample room for valuation expansion. It picked up 18 cents to end at $7.43 Friday.
CompaqWith all the confusion over the proposed Hewlett-Packard acquisition of Compaq (CPQ - commentary - Cramer's Take), this may seem an odd choice. In fact, that acquisition is key: With Compaq's price down, if the merger goes through, Compaq's holders earn a nice premium. But they must sell the Hewlett-Packard shares they receive immediately. And if the merger doesn't go through, Compaq's management will have an incredible incentive to cut, cut, cut and push its profitable businesses to the fore. An independent Compaq's share price could double durnig the next year... even in a rough year for computer outfits. It finished up Friday at $11.50, tacking on 50 cents.
PfizerKing of Big Pharma, Pfizer (PFE - commentary - Cramer's Take) is in the fat part of the harvesting cycle for brand-name drugs. Led by Lipitor, the company has a handful of leading drugs -- it sells seven of the top 25 drugs, worldwide -- which have years to run before patent protection runs out. Around $40, it's expensive, with a price-to-earnings ratio of about 35 -- but it's well off its 52-week high, and doesn't look cheaper anytime soon. You can take this one to the bank. Pfizer lost 41 cents Friday to close at $40.60.
Before I talk about my picks, let me confess that looking at anything longer than a few days is completely outside my area of expertise! Shoot, it's like convincing Shaquille O'Neal to become a great sixth man! With that in mind, though, I came up with two candidates with some attractive pictures.
Wal-MartMy first pick from the long side is Wal-Mart (WMT - commentary - Cramer's Take). I still don't see how this year will end up anything but flat, so I wanted to pick the strongest Dow chart I could find. That belonged to Wal-Mart, as it not only broke that multiyear downtrend line, but also has the added benefit of kicking Kmart's behind! There's safety in size, and Wal-Mart is a good solid place to be. It wound up at $55.80 Friday, down $1.20.
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EchoStar CommunicationsMy second pick is EchoStar Communications (DISH - commentary - Cramer's Take). Quite frankly, if I had to pick one Nasdaq 100 Unit Trust stock, this one is it. Why? Because like Wal-Mart, its carnage appears to be over, and this has plenty of upside potential. Of course, you may wonder why I'm not picking stocks that are making new highs, as I normally do. Remember, when I'm doing that, I'm trading more than anything, looking for small profits, but in short time frames. For stocks that I'm investing in, I generally like a lot of pain to have been absorbed and at least one sign that a return to better times is on the horizon. With EchoStar and Wal-Mart, you have that in spades. EchoStar ticked up 11 cents Friday to end at $29.45.
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VerizonVerizon (VZ - commentary - Cramer's Take) continues to push into getting approval to provide long-distance in most of its incumbent states. (In 1996, Congress allowed competition in the local telephone-service market, and Verizon along with other Baby Bells were the already established local providers. Verizon is the so-called incumbent carrier in certain states.) We'll see it turn this new line of business into a huge cash cow as it'll simply put the hurt on AT&T's, WorldCom's and Sprint's long-distance businesses -- at least until the company buys one of them. However, I'm not sure it will even try because the regulatory environment is signaling that the government might not approve such a combo. Additionally, some indications are that long-distance pricing is finally stabilizing, and that's a trend we can expect to see continue throughout 2002. Whether this year or not, the pending wireless spinoff will catalyze a move in the stock, and the company's soon-to-be-improving fundamentals will more than offset any short-term weakness that would result from the company acquiring one of the major long-distance carriers. Verizon is a great, aggressive, growing company with a nice yield to boot. Enough said. It closed Friday at $49.70, up 33 cents.
EnterasysLet's see: a good balance sheet, a leader or near leader in most all of its product lines, strong sales channels into the military -- a not-just-stabilizing-but-actually-growing sector, good management maximizing business in the bad times and a profitable and growing software subsidiary, Aprisma, due to be spun off in the next couple of months. Granted, Enterasys (ETS - commentary - Cramer's Take) is up some 60% since my first recommendation, but while I could see the stock dip back to $8 or $9 on any pullback, I sure think we'll see it higher than its current level by year-end. It gained 35 cents to wrap up Friday at $10.42.
Brokerage Partners
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