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Top 10 Turnarounds for 2006, Part 1 By Arne Alsin RealMoney.com Contributor 1/5/2006 7:56 AM EST This column was originally published on RealMoney on Dec. 1 at 7:01 a.m. EST. It's being republished as a bonus for TheStreet.com readers. The first two installments of my Top 10 Turnarounds list, posted at the end of 2000 and 2001, were full of good stock ideas. Between the two columns, there were eight multi-bagger ideas, three companies that were acquired at healthy premiums and only two ideas that lagged the S&P 500.
In this, the first of a two-part column, I'll highlight five of the Top 10 Turnarounds for 2006. Look for part two this time next week. Molson CoorsSince the No. 1 Canadian brewer, Molson, and Adolph Coors merged early this year, the new stock, Molson Coors (TAP:NYSE - commentary - research - Cramer's Take), has languished between $60 and $80 per share. Now trading at $66, this stock is very low-risk, with an impressive two- to three-year upside valuation potential of more than $100 per share. The company is up against a difficult macro backdrop, with sluggish beer demand, but there are a lot of operational levers for management to pull to unlock value. Restructuring and right-sizing are going to be the name of the game over the next few years, as merger-related synergies are realized and cost-savings plans are implemented. There is a good chance that my valuation target will be too low, especially if current operating margins of 11.5% eventually are taken to 15%, a level that this operating structure can easily support. DreamWorks AnimationSince trading in the low $40s after its IPO last year, DreamWorks Animation (DWA:NYSE - commentary - research - Cramer's Take) has taken a hit and now trades around $25 per share. My valuation target is in the mid-$40s by 2007. Even at a mid-$40s quote, the company would be valued at a significant discount to key competitor Pixar (PIXR:Nasdaq - commentary - research - Cramer's Take).
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CONTRIBUTOR BIO At time of publication, Alsin and/or ACM was long Molson Coors, DreamWorks Animation, Pier 1 Imports, Eastman Kodak and OfficeMax, although holdings can change at any time.Arne Alsin is the founder and principal of Alsin Capital Management, an Oregon-based investment advisor, and portfolio manager of The Turnaround Fund, a no-load mutual fund. Under no circumstances does the information in this column represent a recommendation to buy or sell stocks. Alsin appreciates your feedback; click here to send him an email. |
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