I blew it. I pronounced that there was no reason to own tech outside of Apple
(AAPL)
and Research In Motion
(RIMM)
or Intel
(INTC)
.
No sooner do I do that than Broadcom
(BRCM)
and Cymer
(CYMI)
report great numbers, and the group soars.
(By the way, by admitting I blew it, I will get much more hate mail than I would from saying I am right but the market's wrong, or that I am early. But so what -- better just to be honest, because everyone gets things wrong.)
Every time you get to conventional-wisdom state in tech, you get your head handed to you, and I fell prey to that after that terrible Texas Instruments
(TXN)
quarter. I just figured, you know what? Stick with a handful of tech and ignore the SOX and its ilk. I said I didn't like Broadcom last night.
Some of my view is based on the calendar. Sixteen out of the last 17 springs and summers have been terrible for tech. It doesn't seem like there's any real momentum here, no real product cycles.
But in this market, what happens is that hedge funds take action. They see the TXN, and they say "I have to short tech. I have to short the SOX. I have to bet against all semi cap equipment stocks after Novellus
(NVLS)
."
So they all go nuts when something good happens, because the shorts are simply betting on really bad things happening, and when they don't, when they do OK, it's a jam. I felt the same way about IBM
(IBM)
. That's a jammable stock, because the shorts don't believe. And obviously, Google
(GOOG)
was like that.
Tech is too hard right now. It is not following the script.
And it's just too reactive, because it's pro-active to nothingness on the part of hedge funds that simply can't resist playing no matter what.
At the time of publication, Cramer had no positions in stocks mentioned.Jim Cramer is a director and co-founder of TheStreet.com. He contributes daily market commentary for TheStreet.com's sites and serves as an adviser to the company's CEO. Outside contributing columnists for TheStreet.com and RealMoney.com, including Cramer, may, from time to time, write about stocks in which they have a position. In such cases, appropriate disclosure is made. To see his personal portfolio and find out what trades Cramer will make before he makes them, sign up for Action Alerts PLUS. Watch Cramer on "Mad Money" weeknights on CNBC.
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