What happened to yesterday's dire forecasts and rollover calls for agriculture, natural gas and gold? Where did those bears go? I demand that they surface.
Now, understand, I believe that the grains, the nat gas prices and the gold price can come down. In fact I think they will come down if we get more numbers that indicate a dramatic slowing in the U.S.
I am just insisting that the marginal buyer of products from a Deere
(DE)
or a Potash
(POT)
or from an Agnico Eagle
(AEM)
or a Yamana
(AUY)
, is not U.S.-based and not hostage to our negative economic trends.
The marginal buyer of the growing supplies of natural gas pumped by XTO
(XTO)
, Anardarko
(APC)
, Apache
(APA)
, Southwestern
(SWN)
and Chesapeake
(CHK)
is someone who wants to get a cheap, reliable source of energy and believes that oil is going to stay high. The switch away from nat gas to oil occurs at about $70 here. The alternatives: solar, ethanol, wind, simply don't add up to more than a couple of days of natural gas.
I point out this because yesterday I saw more bearish commentary about these three areas I like very much than I have seen in weeks. Much of it had to do with "unsustainability" of these trends.
To me, the declines are unsustainable because of low supply of either the products or of their alternatives, the relentless decline in the dollar, which will continue as the Fed panics, and the global nature of the product demand.
I think that a pullback is healthy because I hate parabolic moves. I said that we could get a pullback in these groups and when we got them you have to buy them. It is quite easy to say "oops, now they are coming down, we have to get out," but I cannot play that way unless there is a change in the supply situation or a worldwide demand slowdown, neither of which I see on the horizon.
If you are simply going to look domestically all of these trends seem very wrong and you would be shorting all of them. But that makes no sense. We aren't that significant to these markets. Still, few understand that fact.
Which is why there is so much money to be made in them.
Random musings: I am glad to see that someone recognizes the positives, not the negatives, of Verizon's
(VZ)
runaway promotion of Fios, and the subsequent in ability to get HD screens. The demand is off the charts for this product which so many analysts have questioned endlessly.
At the time of publication, Cramer was long AUY, XTO and VZ.
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