How much was short ahead of Lowe's
(LOW)
? Were people expecting an earnings disaster? Is that what people really believe would happen?
It's tough to fight any tape in which oil goes up, which we know is the key to the futures ramping, as counterintuitive as that is.
But with Lowe's out of the way and it being horrible but with a glimmer of what happened in February, you get a reason to buy when coupled with oil going up.
The oil complex remains the most important complex to this market because of the interrelation to ag. When you have a retailer telling you things have not deteriorated further, when you have a surprise Friday approval for Genentech
(DNA)
, and when you have a mercifully not big opening, it gives the bulls a chance.
The short focus is important because the shorts were caught on Friday off the Ambac
(ABK)
potential bailout. They didn't get a chance to cover. I think they felt pretty good going in to this session, betting that without news of a bailout we could come down hard.
But oil turned; that trumps everything. Oil drives the futures higher as we get relief that oil can't be going up if there is a recession, and we are able to put some quick points on the board.
Take-Two
(TTWO)
plus Getty Images
(GYI)
plus oil plus Lowe's says, "Why are we short again?" to the shorts and they start to cover again.
Endless to and fro. But if oil doesn't stay up, I expect a reversal of pretty much everything. That's the key; never fight it.
At the time of publication, Cramer had no positions in stocks mentioned in this post.
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