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The current market reaction to surging energy prices has hallmarks of denial. After falling earlier in the year when oil went above $40 a barrel, the S&P 500 has recently moved back toward its 2004 high, cheered on by bulls who believe oil must eventually fall. But the boom hasn't let up. November crude futures recently crossed $54 a barrel, and with a long, cold winter ahead, the upward pressure seems unlikely to abate. The run-up has lifted energy stocks, with the Amex Oil Services index up over 15% since Aug. 17. Financials also have fared well during that time, due in large part to lucrative returns on energy investments. So where is the downside of soaring oil prices? "The market is doing it's best to ignore high oil," said John Bollinger, president of Bollinger Capital Management. "I'm not so sure they'll be able to do that forever." The oil-bear camp got a boost Tuesday when November crude futures gave up $1.13 to $52.51 a barrel, a move that might have been foreshadowed in the stock prices of supermajors ChevronTexaco (CVX - commentary - Cramer's Take), ExxonMobil (XOM - commentary - Cramer's Take) and BP (BP - commentary - Cramer's Take). All three stocks fell for a second consecutive session Tuesday. Other sectors have been notably unmoved by oil, including those with big fuel exposures. Perhaps the most obvious place for investors to look for weakness in the face of high oil is the transportation and shipping industry, where any change in fuel costs must either eat into profit margins or be passed on to customers. Still, Paul Desmond, president of technical-analysis firm Lowry's Reports, said that only 10 out of 50 or 60 transport stocks he watches currently sport charts that would lead the firm to urge they be sold. The rest are in "strong buying positions," Desmond said, including Yellow Roadway (YELL - commentary - Cramer's Take), up almost 50% since early May, and Ryder System (R - commentary - Cramer's Take), up 35%. The Dow Jones Transportation Index has added 13.4% since Aug. 16. "Transportation stocks ought to be the ones sending us a message about soaring oil prices, but they're not," Desmond said.
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