DOW
loading...
NASDAQ
loading...
S&P
loading...




Action Alerts PLUS
RealMoney Silver
Market Movers
Stocks Under $10
Options Alerts
Breakout Stocks
View All


Now, enjoy the good life every day!

RSSRSS FEEDS
PODPODCASTS


Markets: Nat Worden
Print This Story

As Oil Surges, Risk to Stocks Also Spikes

By Nat Worden
TheStreet.com Staff Reporter

10/12/2004 12:24 PM EDT
 



Stock investors have become all but inured to news of ever-higher oil prices, a quality they could come to regret.

The current market reaction to surging energy prices has hallmarks of denial. After falling earlier in the year when oil went above $40 a barrel, the S&P 500 has recently moved back toward its 2004 high, cheered on by bulls who believe oil must eventually fall.

But the boom hasn't let up. November crude futures recently crossed $54 a barrel, and with a long, cold winter ahead, the upward pressure seems unlikely to abate.

The run-up has lifted energy stocks, with the Amex Oil Services index up over 15% since Aug. 17. Financials also have fared well during that time, due in large part to lucrative returns on energy investments. So where is the downside of soaring oil prices?

"The market is doing it's best to ignore high oil," said John Bollinger, president of Bollinger Capital Management. "I'm not so sure they'll be able to do that forever."

The oil-bear camp got a boost Tuesday when November crude futures gave up $1.13 to $52.51 a barrel, a move that might have been foreshadowed in the stock prices of supermajors ChevronTexaco (CVX - commentary - Cramer's Take), ExxonMobil (XOM - commentary - Cramer's Take) and BP (BP - commentary - Cramer's Take). All three stocks fell for a second consecutive session Tuesday.

Other sectors have been notably unmoved by oil, including those with big fuel exposures. Perhaps the most obvious place for investors to look for weakness in the face of high oil is the transportation and shipping industry, where any change in fuel costs must either eat into profit margins or be passed on to customers.

Still, Paul Desmond, president of technical-analysis firm Lowry's Reports, said that only 10 out of 50 or 60 transport stocks he watches currently sport charts that would lead the firm to urge they be sold. The rest are in "strong buying positions," Desmond said, including Yellow Roadway (YELL - commentary - Cramer's Take), up almost 50% since early May, and Ryder System (R - commentary - Cramer's Take), up 35%.

The Dow Jones Transportation Index has added 13.4% since Aug. 16.

"Transportation stocks ought to be the ones sending us a message about soaring oil prices, but they're not," Desmond said.

Go to NEXT PAGE


 RELATED STORIES

James J. Cramer
Play Oil Producers by Momentum Rules
10/11/2004 12:56 PM EDT
The group is down just enough to tempt sales but not new buys -- unless you're using a better strategy.



Write us!
Order reprints of TSC articles. Top



Brokerage Partners


TheStreet Premium Services
Jim Cramer
Jim Cramer's Action Alerts PLUS
Now any level of investor can trade right alongside a Wall Street pro — and enjoy 24/7 access to his portfolio! Learn More
Doug Kass
RealMoney Silver
The genius of Doug Kass + 5 Premium Services = an unrivaled group of expert fundamental analysts, technical analysts, and Wall Street observers. Learn More
Don Dion
NEW! Don Dion's ETF Action
A concise two-step strategy for learning and trading in this increasingly lucrative area of investing. For all levels of investors! Learn More
David Peltier
Stocks Under $10
David Peltier is ready to help you find affordable stocks under $10. Because they're so inexpensive, the payout could be enormous! Learn More
Bryan Ashenberg
Breakout Stocks
Bryan Ashenberg combines sophisticated screening software with eagle-eye analysis to find small and mid-caps ready to break out! Learn More

Investor Relations | Privacy Policy | Terms of Use | Conflicts Policy | Corrections | Internet Index | Advertise | FAQ
Site Map | Who's Who | Reader Feedback | Employment | Contact Us
RSSSubscribe to our RSS Feed
© 1996- TheStreet.com, Inc. All rights reserved.
TheStreet.com's enterprise databases running Oracle are professionally monitored and managed by Pythian Remote DBA.