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Markets: Active Trader Update
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Can't Give Up on Google

By Jim Cramer
RealMoney.com Columnist

2/2/2007 7:41 AM EST
Click here for more stories by Jim Cramer
 

This column was originally published on RealMoney on Feb. 1 at 2 p.m. EST. It's being republished as a bonus for TheStreet.com readers. For more information about subscribing to RealMoney, please click here.



Google's (GOOG - commentary - Cramer's Take) tough because, as great as it is, you still have to say it is a "decelerating" revenue story. And that's only because it can't grow at 99% as it did last year, although the 40% it is growing still ain't shabby.

Nevertheless, there are enough mutual funds out there that simply will not buy decelerating revenue growth, including many that only buy ARG, or accelerating revenue growth,.

But that doesn't mean you should give up on Google. I still believe the stock can get to $600, but it won't get there as quickly as when it was an accelerating story.

The reason? It's harder to value. Let's contrast it with eBay (EBAY - commentary - Cramer's Take) and Yahoo! (YHOO - commentary - Cramer's Take), both of which now sell at a higher multiple to earnings than Google. That's amazing, because both are mediocre compared with the earnings machine that is Google. But they are broken stories that might get fixed, so we will pay more for them because they can accelerate.

Still, let's remember that Google has 70% of the online ad market, and that market share is only growing. That's like Microsoft (MSFT - commentary - Cramer's Take) circa 1985, or Intel (INTC - commentary - Cramer's Take) circa 1990s.

Plus, Google is just beginning to take share of the $600 billion ad market. Leaving it is out of the question.

That's why it's flapping here. You should also keep in mind that this stock only increased by 17% last year on all of this great growth, so don't per se say that it is expensive. So, hold it. Buy it if it goes down to $450, because then you will have a $150 move ahead and that's a fantastic reward.

Random musings: More noodling on Dell (DELL - commentary - Cramer's Take) brings me to the lack of upside given that it really is a distribution machine that is up against two other distribution machines selling similar commodities: Acer and Lenovo. I think that caps the stock at $30, which is still OK, given a couple of bucks downside. But Dell lacks the earnings leverage of a Hewlett-Packard (HPQ - commentary - Cramer's Take), which should be bought right here.






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At the time of publication, Cramer was long Yahoo! and Hewlett-Packard.

Jim Cramer is a director and co-founder of TheStreet.com. He contributes daily market commentary for TheStreet.com's sites and serves as an adviser to the company's CEO. Outside contributing columnists for TheStreet.com and RealMoney.com, including Cramer, may, from time to time, write about stocks in which they have a position. In such cases, appropriate disclosure is made. To see his personal portfolio and find out what trades Cramer will make before he makes them, sign up for Action Alerts PLUS. Watch Cramer on "Mad Money" weeknights on CNBC. Click here to order Cramer's latest book, "Mad Money: Watch TV, Get Rich," click here to order his book, "Real Money: Sane Investing in an Insane World," click here to get his second book, "You Got Screwed!" and click here to order Cramer's autobiography, "Confessions of a Street Addict." While he cannot provide personalized investment advice or recommendations, he invites you to send comments on his column by clicking here.

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