The huge energy stocks have declined by a larger percentage than the slide in crude oil prices, which peaked at $75.35 on April 21. There is now a major divergence between crude oil prices and share price for the "Big Five." The Big Five -- BP Plc (BP - commentary - Cramer's Take), ConocoPhillips (COP - commentary - Cramer's Take), Chevron (CVX - commentary - Cramer's Take), Total SA (TOT - commentary - Cramer's Take) and Exxon Mobil (XOM - commentary - Cramer's Take) -- are trading below their 200-day simple moving averages, or SMA, and approaching their 52-week lows. Crude oil is above its 200-day SMA at $64.66, and well above its Nov. 30, 2005 low of $55.72. This comparison alone justifies owning these stocks if you are an energy bull.

The weekly chart profile for crude oil has turned negative, which indicates risk to my monthly and semiannual supports at $64.52 and $64.58, for a test of the 200-day SMA. If crude oil were to slip to these levels, the Big Five should decline toward their 52-week lows and value levels, where investors should add to positions.

It appears to me that there are still speculative long positions in crude oil, while these positions have been shaken out in other commodities, such as gold and copper. I agree with former Exxon Mobil CEO Lee Raymond's assessment in his congressional testimony last fall that speculation resulted in the price of crude oil to be $20 higher than the forces of supply and demand.

Even so, we are in hurricane season, and those geopolitical risks should keep the $65 area as a floor, while increased supply and reduced demand with a slowing economy should keep a ceiling below $76. If you took out these three premiums, crude oil should decline toward my annual support at $51.87 by the end of the year.

Here are my model's trading parameters for the buy-rated big-five energy stocks, which all have a market cap of more than $75 billion. Investors who want to trade a rebound in crude oil prices should pick from this group of stocks and add to holdings on additional weakness. If crude rebounds, these stocks should trade up to their 200-day simple moving averages.

BP: Investors should look for a rebound to the 200-day SMA at $68.92 and add to positions on weakness to the 52-week low at $62.25.

ConocoPhillips: A rebound could come to the 200-day SMA at $63.58, and traders might build positions on weakness to the 52-week low at $55.87. Additional shares could be added on weakness to my semiannual value level at $53.79.

Chevron: Shareholders could see a rebound to the 200-day SMA at $59.21 and add to positions on weakness to the 52-week low at $53.76. Additional shares should be added on weakness to my semiannual value level at $50.26.

Total: My models suggest investors look for a rebound to the 200-day SMA at $64.35 and add to positions on weakness to the 52-week low at $58.06. Additional shares should be added on weakness to my monthly value level at $50.91.

Exxon Mobil: The stock should rebound to the 200-day SMA at $60.29, and investors might add to positions on weakness to the 52-week low at $54.50. Additional shares should be added on weakness to my semi-annual value level at $45.52.

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