Accountability Report Card: 4Q 2000
Date	Source	Recommendation/forecast	*Performance (in percents)	TaskMaster says...
Oct. 2	Thomas Galvin, chief investment officer at Donaldson Lufkin & Jenrette **	Buy: Owens Corning (OWC:NYSE - news - boards), Citrix Systems (CTXS:Nasdaq - news - boards), Compuware (CPWR:Nasdaq - news - boards), BMC Software (BMCS:Nasdaq - news - boards) and Novell (NOVL:Nasdaq - news - boards).	OWC: 20 CTXS: 49 CPWR: 24.6 BMCS: 66.8 NOVL: -35.8	Individual stock picking much better than macro "bottom" call.
Oct. 4	Christine Callies, U.S. stock strategist at Merrill Lynch	It is "premature" to declare that the Comp has bottomed, but investors willing "to start nibbling before the correction is over" should start scaling in, now that the Nasdaq has breached 3600.	COMP: -35.6	Anybody who "nibbled" at 3600 is now choking.
Oct. 5	Marshall Acuff, portfolio strategist at Salomon Smith Barney	Buy: America Online (AOL:NYSE - news - boards), IBM (IBM:NYSE - news - boards), Kimberly-Clark (KMB:NYSE - news - boards), SBC Communications (SBC:NYSE - news - boards), Tyco International (TYC:NYSE - news - boards), United Technologies (UTX:NYSE - news - boards), Chubb (CB:NYSE - news - boards), Century Telephone (CTL:NYSE - news - boards), IMS Health (IMS:NYSE - news - boards).	AOL: -27.8 IBM: -5 KMB: 21.8 SBC: -11.3 TYC: 2.9 UTX: 8.8 CB: -11.1 CTL: -12 IMS: 6 RX: 21.9	Pretty solid, all things considered.
Oct. 5	Tony Dwyer, chief market strategist at Kirlin Securities	Buy: Applied Materials (AMAT:Nasdaq - news - boards), Atmel (ATML:Nasdaq - news - boards)	AMAT: -12.2 ATML: -15.7	Not bad, all things considered. But not good, either.
Oct. 17	Gregg Schreiber, vice president of institutional futures sales at Bear Stearns	"It's a bear market [and] I don't see any bottom in sight."	DJIA: 4.3 SPX: -7 Comp: - 29.4	"No bottom" was the right call.
Oct. 17	Bob Brinker, publisher of Bob Brinker's Marketimer	...go long the Nasdaq 100 Trusts (QQQ:NYSE - news - boards), expects QQQs to rally 20% over the next two to four months.	QQQ: -34.2	It's a long way to 20% rally from mid-Oct. levels.
Oct. 24	Thomas McManus, equity portfolio strategist at Banc of America Securities	"it won't be a complete, reliable, viable bottom until we see more in the way of traditional signs of liquidation."	DJIA: 1.3 SPX: -10.2 Comp: -33.7	Guru of the Year for 2000.
Oct. 25	Walter Nightingale and Gary Farber, Nightingale & Farber Capital	Buy: Verizon (VZ:NYSE - news - boards), Nextel Communications (NXTL:Nasdaq - news - boards), Global Crossing (GBLX:Nasdaq - news - boards)	VZ: 1.8 NXTL: -38.1 GX: - 30.8	Bad time for telecom.
Nov. 2	Michael Shaoul and Timothy Brackett of Oscar Gruss & Son	Biotechs are a bubble.	BTK: -30.1 IXBT: -28	Maybe "bubble" was too strong, but the sell call was right.
Nov. 7	McManus	"We have yet to experience a wave of [mutual fund] liquidation notices in today's environment, and that is one reason we have yet to ratify the consensus view that October's lows marked an important market bottom."	DJIA: -3.9 SPX: - 12.3 Comp: -33.6	GOTY
Nov. 9	Joseph Keating, chief investment officer at Kent Funds	Buy: WorldCom (WCOM:Nasdaq - news - boards), Intel (INTC:Nasdaq - news - boards), EMC (EMC:NYSE - news - boards), Dell (DELL:Nasdaq - news - boards) and Cisco (CSCO:Nasdaq - news - boards)	WCOM: -1.6 INTC: -25.7 EMC: -48.3 DELL: -27.3 CSCO: -52.8	Wrong time for big-cap tech.
Nov. 9	Brian Belski, fundamental market strategist at U.S. Bancorp Piper Jaffray	Buy: Dell, Intel, Microsoft (MSFT:Nasdaq - news - boards), Compaq (CPQ:NYSE - news - boards), Micron (MU:NYSE - news - boards), Siebel Systems (SEBL:Nasdaq - news - boards), i2 Technologies (ITWO:Nasdaq - news - boards)	DELL: -27.3 INTC: - 25.7 MSFT: -20.6 CPQ: -22.5 MU: 17.9 SEBL: -48.5 ITWO: -53.9	I reiterate, wrong time for big-cap tech (Micron aside).
Nov. 13	McManus	Buy: Cardinal Health (CAH:NYSE - news - boards), Alza (AZA:NYSE - news - boards), Freddie Mac (FRE:NYSE - news - boards), Fannie Mae (FNM:NYSE - news - boards), Kimberly-Clark, Avon (AVP:NYSE - news - boards), Reliant Energy (REI:NYSE - news - boards); ***Southern Energy (SOE:NYSE - news - boards), Constellation Energy (CEG: - news - boards)	CAH: 10 AZA: -7 FRE: 16.3 FNM: 7.8 KMB: 4.9 AVP: -12.7 REI: -0.5 SOE: -2.8 CEG: -0.6	Not bad, but macro calls were better.
Nov. 16	John Bollinger, BollingerBands.com	Buy: Integrated Device Technology (IDTI:Nasdaq - news - boards) at $32.	IDTI: up 28.8% since hitting $32 on 11/30.	A good call.
Nov. 17	Don Hays, president of Hays Market Focus	Predicted the Nasdaq will continue to decline for the next six to 10 weeks. Forecast the end of the decline will come after a "climactic four-five days that will really knock the stuffing out of the market" and take the Comp to as low as 1800.	Comp: Fell as low as 2252 on Jan. 3.	Right direction, wrong target.
Nov. 28	Greg Smith, market strategist at Prudential Securities	"The days of growth at any price are definitely behind us, and we might wind up with moderate growth at a reasonable price or having a more value-oriented outlook."	SVX: 0.4 SGX: -16.6	Yep.
Nov. 30	Brett Gallagher, head of U.S equities and deputy chief investment officer at Julius Baer Investment Management	If the market bottomed today, "it's certainly not one that's going to stick." ...sees 1800 as "fair value" for the Nasdaq. "Now that momentum is entirely broken, we think approaching those levels is a bit more likely."	Comp: -12.7, traded as low as 2251.	Again, right direction, wrong target (so far).
Dec. 4	Christine Callies	Buy : Convergys (CVG:NYSE - news - boards), Liz Claiborne (LIZ:NYSE - news - boards) and Wal-Mart (WMT:NYSE - news - boards)	CVG: -11.4 LIZ: 12 WMT: -6.7	So-so, which is pretty good considering.
Dec. 5	Greg Nie, chief technical analyst at First Union Securities	"This was a relief rally in the truest sense of the word. "It's too optimistic to say we're putting in a V-bottom. The underpinnings are iffy [regarding] sustainability."	DJIA: -3.4 SPX: -8.8 COMP: -21.5	Learned the error of his bottom-picking ways.
Dec. 14	Sam Ginzburg, senior managing director of equity trading at Gruntal	Buy: Raymond James (RJF:NYSE - news - boards), A.G. Edwards (AGE:NYSE - news - boards), Morgan Keegan (MOR:NYSE - news - boards)	RJF: 20.9 AGE: -13.4 MOR: 44.1	Meatloaf was right: Two-outta-three ain't bad.
Dec. 18	Ginzburg	Short Providian (PVN:NYSE - news - boards)	PVN: 4.9	Better on the long side.
Dec. 19	Peter Canelo, U.S. investment strategist at Morgan Stanley Dean Witter	Foresees managers switching back into tech once the new year arrives. Believes expectations for 14% growth in tech earnings in 2001 are overly pessimistic -- he's looking for high teens. Says valuations in the sector are "absurdly low."	Comp: Rose nearly 25% in January.	Good call on January, but earning estimates seem overly optimistic.
Dec. 24	Hays	Announced that his asset-allocation model had turned bullish, suggested the Comp and S&P could enjoy 15%-to-20% gains and the Dow might approach its all-time high in a forthcoming rally.	Comp: Rose as much as 12.8% on closing basis after 12/24. SPX: rose as much as 5.2%. DJIA: Traded as high as 10,984 vs. record 11,311.	Again, right on direction, wrong on the targets.
*Percent (%) change through Feb. 21 unless otherwise noted. ** DLJ acquired by Credit Suisse First Boston on Nov. 3.*** Now Mirant (MIR:NYSE - news - boards). Source: Baseline.

Remember, the performance column assumes an investor held the stocks from the time the call was made through yesterday's close. The reality is that most of the sources (it's hoped) altered their portfolios during the intervening period.

As always, we'll try to catch up with the sources in the coming days to update their calls. Given recent published reports and comments from Applegate, Belski, Cohen, Kerschner and Robbins, I can tell you none has markedly altered his or her viewpoint.

Another update I can provide now regards Bob Brinker of Bob Brinker's Marketimer. In the February issue of his monthly newsletter, Brinker wrote "our expectation of a target range [for the QQQs] in the 80 to 90 range remains intact. We believe this remains an achievable objective into the second quarter."

Brinker will "work to identify an appropriate sell point during the coming months" for the QQQs. It's possible Brinker has changed his outlook since the newsletter was published on Feb. 7, but in that issue -- and in a recent conversation with me -- the market timer seemed as adamant as ever that his "countertrend rally" call will prove accurate. The QQQ was off 0.50; or 0.97%, to 51 today after trading as low as 48.89.

Finally, also missing from the table above were a few good calls from Steven Hochberg and Peter Kendall, co-editors of The Elliott Wave Financial Forecast. Late in the fourth quarter, the newsletter writers correctly identified mid-December and late January as Fibonacci turn dates, indicating short-term changes in the market's direction.

More recently, on Feb. 2 to be specific, Hochberg said the next expected turn date isn't until late March, suggesting February could be "choppy" at best for those long. The Comp could retest its Jan. 2 lows and the Dow could break 10,000, he forecast.