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Personal Finance : Mutual Fund Monday - Beverly Goodman
Corporate bonds are showing record levels of distress -- and so are investors. The average high-yield bond (pejoratively, though often accurately, referred to as "junk") yields 10.15 percentage points more than similar-maturity U.S. Treasuries, according to Merrill Lynch's High-Yield Master II Index. That yield gap, or spread, is the highest it's been since it hit an all-time high of 10.52 percentage points in 1991 -- and today's levels are closing in on that high. While the arena is fraught with greater risks in this market, some fund managers say it's a good time to jump in. High-yield bonds are generally considered "distressed" when their spread over Treasuries exceeds 10 percentage points. Corporate bonds from companies that have either defaulted on their debt obligations or filed for bankruptcy protection are also considered distressed. Unfortunately, there's no shortage of distress-inducing events in this market, and investors are demanding a premium (in the form of higher yields) for the perceived risk. Treasuries are currently yielding 3.68%, making the junk-bond average yield 13.82%. Those high yields -- while serving as a measure of investors' wariness of default -- will certainly appeal to some more aggressive or optimistic investors. "Treasuries are priced at levels that are historically rich in price, low in yield," says Prescott Crocker, portfolio manager for the $1.4 billion high yield group at Evergreen Funds. "And high yield bonds are trading at historically high spreads. There's an extraordinary opportunity here." As enthusiastic as he is about the high yield market, Crocker sticks to "BB-plus" as scored by Standard & Poors and Fitch Ratings or "Ba1" from Moody's -- the highest quality corporate debt. "Those issues have the least amount of intrinsic risk," he says. "They're just one notch below investment grade, their history of default is small, and they're trading an average of 615 basis points above Treasuries." In addition, the spectacular downgrades of so-called fallen angels such as Global Crossing, Qwest Communications (Q:NYSE - news - commentary - research - analysis) and the like generally shoot right past the BB-plus level. Crocker says positive economic indicators abound, pointing in particular to low interest rates and government spending that transformed a $200 billion surplus into a $200 billion deficit. "There are policies in place to keep the economy moving ahead," he says. "People mistake the stock market for the economy. That's not the case -- the economy showed 3.5% real growth this quarter and will likely hit 4% next quarter, thanks primarily to government and consumer spending."
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