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Dow Jones S&P 500 NASDAQ 10-Year Note
10,501.05 1,114.11 2,212.10 35.46
Oil *
71.77
UP
29.55
UP
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UP
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UP
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10 Yr
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Commentary: Wrong! Tactics and Strategies
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Valuing the SOX: Linear Technology
By James J. Cramer

3/19/01 10:31 AM ET


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Click here for the latest from James J. Cramer.
All of the analysts still love Linear Tech (LLTC:Nasdaq - news - boards) because its visibility is still good, in part because of its strength in analog products needed for communications technology. This company still showed excellent growth in its most recent quarterly report.

To me that's an opportunity to sell. As you can see from the chart below, this stock is way too high vs. its typical buy points.

P/E Data Ranked Over Time
Linear Technology (LLTC)
RANK DATE P/E ****
Lowest P/E 1 7/19/96 15.86
2 10/9/1998 19.40
3 10/7/1994 26.36
4 1/9/1998 28.35
5 3/8/1996 30.00
6 6/13/1997 30.98
Highest P/E 7 3/16/2001 36.52 Last Friday
8 2/26/99 37.13
The list is sorted from lowest P/E to highest, with Friday's P/E highlighted.

In my new spirit of offering alternatives, I would suggest that you sell Linear Tech and buy Advance Micro Devices (AMD:NYSE - news - boards). Linear is still flying high, where AMD is flying low. One is expensive historically and has a dozen competitors yapping at its heels, while the other is taking huge share from Intel (INTC:Nasdaq - news - boards) and seems like it is on about as good a roll as you can get in this industry.

I like this comparison because the part of AMD's business that is dragging down the chip is flash, which is also used in communications. If you have to buy one of these, and some people feel that they have to, I would focus on AMD, not Linear Tech.

Ideal Entry and Exits on the SOX Index
Overlaid on LLTC's P/E and Price
Source: Bloomberg.

SOX Index
Linear Technology (LLTC)
Date Index Price P/E Ratio Price to Sales
Currently, this is where we are this week. On 3/16/01 the SOX is at 541.26 and Linear Technology is at: $42.00 36.52 14.97
A great Exit on the weekly SOX chart would have been 3/10/00 when the Index was at 1332.73 At the time, Linear Technology was at: 50.78 71.52 26.89
A great Entry on the weekly SOX chart would have been 2/26/99 when the Index was at 356.26 At the time, Linear Technology was at: 21.91 37.13 13.49
A great Exit on the weekly SOX chart would have been 1/29/99 when the Index was at 420.45 At the time, Linear Technology was at: 25.44 43.11 15.66
A great Entry on the weekly SOX chart would have been 10/9/98 when the Index was at 200.8 At the time, Linear Technology was at: 11.25 19.40 6.99
A great Exit on the weekly SOX chart would have been 2/27/98 when the Index was at 316.43 At the time, Linear Technology was at: 18.94 39.05 13.49
A great Entry on the weekly SOX chart would have been 1/9/98 when the Index was at 248.9 At the time, Linear Technology was at: 13.75 28.35 9.79
A great Exit on the weekly SOX chart would have been 8/22/97 when the Index was at 391.62 At the time, Linear Technology was at: 17.06 40.15 13.50
A great Entry on the weekly SOX chart would have been 6/13/97 when the Index was at 294.86 At the time, Linear Technology was at:: 12.63 30.98 10.43
A great Exit on the weekly SOX chart would have been 1/31/97 when the Index was at 288.73 At the time, Linear Technology was at: 12.19 29.02 9.92
A great Entry on the weekly SOX chart would have been 7/19/96 when the Index was at 152.71 At the time, Linear Technology was at: 6.78 15.86 5.59
A great Exit on the weekly SOX chart would have been 5/17/96 when the Index was at 212.57 At the time, Linear Technology was at: 8.31 20.21 7.10
A great Entry on the weekly SOX chart would have been 3/8/96 when the Index was at 172.71 At the time, Linear Technology was at: 10.88 30.00 10.27
A great Exit on the weekly SOX chart would have been 8/18/95 when the Index was at 293.79 At the time, Linear Technology was at: 10.13 36.49 11.67
A great Entry on the weekly SOX chart would have been 10/7/94 when the Index was at 122.72 At the time, Linear Technology was at: 5.47 26.36 7.75
*The determination of these dates and prices was made by identifying optimum entry and exit points on a historical graph of the SOX using weekly closing prices.



James J. Cramer is a director and co-founder of TheStreet.com. He contributes daily market commentary for TheStreet.com's sites and serves as an adviser to the company's CEO. Outside contributing columnists for TheStreet.com and RealMoney.com, including Cramer, may, from time to time, write about stocks in which they have a position. In such cases, appropriate disclosure is made. While he cannot provide personalized investment advice or recommendations, he invites you to send comments on his column to jjcletters@thestreet.com.
Send letters to the editor to letters@realmoney.com.
Read our conflicts and disclosure policy.
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Dow Jones S&P 500 NASDAQ 10-Year Note
10,501.05 1,114.11 2,212.10 35.46
Oil *
71.77
UP
29.55
UP
7.70
UP
21.79
UP
0.06
10 Yr
3.55%
SPDR Gold
110.24
+0.28%
+0.70%
+0.99%
+0.17%
Data delayed 20 minutes