So what do we do with Intel (INTC:Nasdaq - news - boards)? I want to reach back into the Cramer Berkowitz playbook to something I wrote when we just started because it is as timeless and pertinent as when first penned. It has the answers to Intel and a host of others. Please read it.

If you look deep into our playbook at Cramer Berkowitz, in the fine print under "preannouncements" you will see a footnote that has saved me more money -- and more heartache -- than just about any line in the whole world: "Wait at least 30 days before buying a stock that has preannounced bad earnings."

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I don't care if the president and the board of directors arrive at your office the morning of a downgrade and tell you that the stock break is the "greatest buying opportunity of the millennium."

Don't believe them. They don't know what they are talking about. They will cost you money. They will be wrong.

Not only that, but unlike all of the other people out there writing about business, I won't equivocate on this. I'm not even going to put in one of those "to be sures," or "of course, there are occasions."

There aren't. This rule cannot be violated.

Why am I so adamant about this? First, because it makes sense. Companies don't preannounce because their past or current book of business looks soft. They preannounce because their future business looks grim. Most businesses, because of various lead time and inventory considerations, have visibility out for about four or five weeks.

The combination of a poor start to a quarter and lack of visibility is what triggers a preannouncement. Hence the insistence on waiting for 30 days. Only then could the visibility have radically changed. Only then could things have improved.

But more important is my rigorous, some would say maniacal, obsession with learning from my own mistakes. At the end of every month, quarter and year, I sit down with all of my trades and I categorize them. Yeah, I grade them. I have almost never given a passing grade to a buy of a stock after a preannouncement. And I do thousands of trades -- a month!!!! Let me be the de facto lab for your mistakes. Buying stocks right after earnings shortfalls does not make you money. Period.

The reason for that is simple: After even the most obvious preannouncement, there is always somebody out there who doesn't know that bad news is coming. It is likely that someone owns so much stock that he simply can't get out of all of it in one fell swoop, or two or three swoops for that matter.

In the meantime other buyers get worn down as the seller keeps coming back with more supply. By the time he is done the stock is a candidate for a tax-motivated sale, or an end-of-the-quarter-motivated sale, inducing a whole new group of sellers.

Put simply: The new life cycle of a broken stock on the mend can't begin until this change in ownership is through.

For those of you who need an even simpler analogy: I am going in for surgery on my right knee in about 10 minutes. No doubt three hours from now, the injury will be repaired and I will be well on my way to recovery. But I don't expect to be beating my daughters in hopscotch any time soon.