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We weathered a host of big downgrades of companies like Cisco (CSCO:Nasdaq - news - boards) and Yahoo! (YHOO:Nasdaq - news - boards) with great aplomb. We handled the earnings preannouncements from LSI (LSI:NYSE - news - boards) and Vitesse (VTSS:Nasdaq - news - boards) like champs, not stumbling, not even taking a six-count.

Can we shrug off JDS Uniphase (JDSU:Nasdaq - news - boards)? Can we cordon off this former icon that used to be known as Just Don't Sell Us and keep ticking?

Maybe.

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Don't Get Too Excited

That's not the problem. It is what will surface tomorrow or the next day or the day after that.

The reason every rally in tech is just a trading rally that allows you to reposition yourself to be less tech-centric is because there is nothing good happening in tech, and believe it or not, we can't have stocks just go up because they are done going down. We can't get investable chunks of time because stocks are sold out or low. We get just get trading moments.

I can already sense among the shorts that there is tremendous fear right now, fear that JDSU will not go down and we will begin to build on a "won't go down" rally that started on Monday.

These shorts have so much fire-power that I can see a continuation of the rally as these folks say "I can't take this anymore."

And then another blow up will occur. This time it will be a blow up that we don't expect -- JDSU had already warned -- and the stocks will be just enough higher to allow a fall to occur again.

All of that "I thought they were done going down" logic will be out the window again. We will be stuck in stocks that have moved up too much that will then slink back down.

What breaks this cycle? Only one thing can break it: better fundamentals. Don't kid yourself, nothing that has been said this week indicates that the fundamentals are improving.

So you can stay long all that tech. But staying long is a bet that either the fundamentals don't matter OR that the turn is almost at hand.

I know the former can't be the case. Or at least it never has been historically. The latter? Anybody's guess, but you would think that someone somewhere, in semis or software or fiber or storage or wireless or photonics or in personal computers, would see it. Someone, somewhere.

Until someone does, it's just a trade. Take the trade.

Random musings: Looking for a methodology to buying stocks in an era where price earnings ratios and liking the product seems to have failed badly? Come to my Great CEOs lecture and I will reveal a matrix that works and has worked even during this tremendous bear market for tech.