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Commentary: Wrong! Rear Echelon Revelations *New* Alerts! Please click here...
Did you get faked out by all of the false moves of Intel (INTC:Nasdaq - news - boards) this morning? Did you bite? Did you think it was going to work? This piece is for you. First, I want you to turn off the talking heads when they talk about premarket trading and instead focus on stuff like you read here. We aren't trying to make Intel go higher and we aren't trying to juice what shouldn't be juiced.
Second, for years, I used to make breakfast of the suckers who bought these heated openings when the fundies weren't there. The buyers were my Egg McMuffins, and, boy, do I love Egg McMuffins. People would hear that Intel was up a dollar in premarket trading and we would sit there and offer and offer and offer to all of those who said, "I know this is going up because it is going up." Stocks go up when there is more buying interest than selling interest and the fundamentals have a hint of improvement. You have to have both of these. Intel does not have an improvement in fundamentals. It doesn't and it won't until the personal computer market turns, and it hasn't. Sure, there are times when so many people are caught looking the wrong way and get burned -- see my three-part article on Cisco to read about bad trade that triggered a big rally -- but this wasn't one of them. Funny, but one of the things I have to do in this new job of mine is to recognize when I have reached a conclusion that could impact your thinking. When I wrote the don't-buy-Intel piece this morning, my editor made it an Action Alert, meaning it contains something that you might want you to consider before you buy or sell. (Action Alerts are published exclusively on RealMoney.com, and never port over to the free TSC site.) I didn't think that anyone would really want to buy Intel, but I was wrong. People got suckered. People believed the excitement, the sizzle, and forgot all about the fundamentals. If I do one thing right as your markets strategist (without the commissions!), I want to stop you from buying the wrong stuff, like Intel, when it is flying for no reason. No one loved Intel more than I did for as long as I did. Heck, my best piece ever for SmartMoney was when I wrote, as my swan song, to double up on Intel even after it had doubled. Just met a guy at the Borders book signing who did just that and made a small fortune. I am a self-professed Intelaholic. But Intel isn't right, right now. And I don't want you buying it until there is a darned good reason to do so, and I can't think of one right now. When I do, you will be the first to know. Random musings: Sometimes I come across a piece and I say to myself "Heck, I wish I had written that, it's fantastic. I felt that way about Bullard's unbelievably good piece about Ryan Jacob and his Internet fund. Read it, if you haven't already. Also, everybody wanted a signed autograph edition of the new TSC book at Borders. You from out of town? Please go to eBay where you can buy an autographed copy. James J. Cramer is a director and co-founder of TheStreet.com. He contributes daily market commentary for the network of TSC sites and serves as an adviser to the company's CEO. Nonstaff contributing columnists for TheStreet.com and RealMoney.com, including Cramer, may, from time to time, write about stocks in which they have a position. In such cases, appropriate disclosure is made. Under no circumstances does the information in this column represent a recommendation to buy or sell stocks. While he cannot provide investment advice or recommendations, he invites you to send comments on his column to james.cramer@thestreet.com.
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