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Even More Criteria for Bullishness
By James J. Cramer

12/5/00 1:04 PM ET


Like I would drop this when the getting is good. Here goes. And we have a massive amount of checks to add. Like, every one of them!

10/11/003:31 PM ET

What would make me more bullish? Fair question. Here's the checklist: (I am bullish, here's why:)

1. A bottom in the financials. I get queasy when I see this group rolling over because it often implies structural problems, especially when rates aren't doing much of anything. That's the case right now and I find it disconcerting. (We have it. Lots of negative news and they don't go down. Better yet, we can smell the Fed ease now. It is that close.)

2. Some tech companies reporting good news, followed by a move up in price. I am concerned that nothing is good enough for investors right now. [Boom, we have it,. Look at Nokia (NOK:NYSE ADR - news - boards). Look at Cisco (CSCO:Nasdaq - news - boards). Look at Brocade (BRCD:Nasdaq - news - boards).]

3. Some sign that Janus is stabilizing. I don't like to draw analogies to giant pools of capital that might be in weak hands, but I fear that if the company doesn't open up its Janus Twenty fund, people will shoot against those 20. (This is now a loser's game because Janus has raised a huge amount of cash to meet redemptions that it won't have. Shooting against Janus is now just plain stupid. You want to bank with Janus.)

4. The cell phone market heating up again. This slowdown in cell phones has pole-axed dozens of important stocks. (Nokia is signaling that business has accelerated. I have no reason to doubt them.)

5. A sign that the weak telco hands are going to be merging or getting bought. We need to see the weaker CLECs removed from the equation. (Their bankruptcy is now factored in. It is a given. It can't cause more weakness.)

6. Oil going well under $30. We can't afford oil going back to the mid-$30s. We need some breathing room. (Holeeee cowww!! Done! Right here right now.)

7. A major strategist going bearish. We need to have some strategist call the bottom with a really bad call to get out of the market. That would cause the crescendo that still hasn't happened yet. (They are all closet bears. They are only talking a bullish game. It is perfect.)

8. A clear winner in the election. I don't like the uncertainty I see now in the race, because there are too many stocks that will trade differently under different regimes. (Holleeee cowww!!! Another check!!)

9. More bears in the Investors' Intelligence Survey. I would like to see the bulls well under 40%. (Don't have it, but could the public be any more bearish given the cash levels?)

10. Some headline on some newspaper or some magazine saying the bull is dead. This could be more important than No. 7, if done by a true believer, like Forbes or Business Week. (We have had a gazillion of these.)

11. Viewership down for the TV shows about the market. This would help, and would make us feel more like people have capitulated. (Done a long time ago.)

12. The collapse of Buzz and Batch. I hate these smarmy jokers and I was thrilled to see them in the red today, but you knew they would take it up today. That's their style. They have too much on the line. (When 123 firms were down 40%, the bell went off.)

13. What I don't need to see is a collapse in Cisco, which many of you are waiting for. I don't think it will happen. It is the new crop of billion-dollar companies, the Juniper (JNPR:Nasdaq - news - boards))/Applied Micro Circuits (AMCC:Nasdaq - news - boards) crowd that has to break. That's where Buzz and Batch live. That's their breadbox. (They are done going down. We are continuing to buy Cisco. We are even buying Net stocks. What can I say? When you are bullish, you have to run with the bulls.)

Anyway, hope that helps. I am confident that when we see these occur, you can own stocks -- not just trade them. (Everyone is checked. I repeat. Everyone is checked. I cannot now say, hold it, I have a whole bunch of other reasons to be bearish. I don't. I am bullish. Period.)


James J. Cramer is manager of a hedge fund and co-founder of TheStreet.com. At time of publication, his fund was long Applied Micro Circuits, Brocade, Cisco, Juniper and Nokia. His fund often buys and sells securities that are the subject of his columns, both before and after the columns are published, and the positions that his fund takes may change at any time. Under no circumstances does the information in this column represent a recommendation to buy or sell stocks. Cramer's writings provide insights into the dynamics of money management and are not a solicitation for transactions. While he cannot provide investment advice or recommendations, he invites you to send comments on his column to James J. Cramer .
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Dow Jones S&P 500 NASDAQ 10-Year Note
10,328.89 1,102.47 2,211.69 35.46
Oil *
73.88
UP
20.63
UP
6.40
UP
31.64
UP
0.59
10 Yr
3.55%
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108.95
+0.20%
+0.58%
+1.45%
+1.69%
Data delayed 20 minutes

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