The Bullishness Checklist, Once Again

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What would make me more bullish? Fair question. Here's the checklist: I drew this list up almost two months ago because I thought things would come to this. Now they have. Let's go over what we needed to see and how many checks we have.

1. 1. A bottom in the financials. I get queasy when I see this group rolling over because it often implies structural problems, especially when rates aren't doing much of anything. That's the case right now and I find it disconcerting. This bottom is now a given, because the Fed has to ease. That's what the bonds are saying with their dramatic ramp up in the last few days. That's what the giant moves in the savings and loans -- the first to react and anticipate the Fed's ease -- say. The stocks themselves with the most credit risk could still have a problem (meaning most loan defaults) and the brokers are noting to write home about. But this group has clearly bottomed.

2. Some tech companies reporting good news, followed by a move up in price. I am concerned that nothing is good enough for investors right now. We don't really have this and I am worried that it will be lost in a sea of guide-downs and earnings blowups in the next few weeks.

3. Some sign that Janus is stabilizing. I don't like to draw analogies to giant pools of capital that might be in weak hands, but I fear that if the company doesn't open up its Janus Twenty fund, people will shoot against those 20. We don't have this at all. This is a big worry for the market: that is, what the people will do when they see the miserable performance, unless it stabilizes now.

4. The cell-phone market heating up again. This slowdown in cell phones has pole-axed dozens of important stocks. This is happening. The business at Nokia (NOK:NYSE ADR - news - boards) has gotten good again. We are long it.

5. A sign that the weak telco hands are going to be merging or getting bought. We need to see the weaker CLECs removed from the equation. On the verge of this happening, I think, but more bankruptcies have to occur.

6. Oil going well under $30. We can't afford oil going back to the mid-$30s. We need some breathing room. It isn't there yet but it is unmistakably coming down. Even with the Iraq issue. I want to check this off.

7. A major strategist going bearish. We need to have some strategist call the bottom with a really bad call to get out of the market. That would cause the crescendo that still hasn't happened yet. This hasn't happened. However, I think the remaining strategists won't go bearish even if their indicators say they should.

8. A clear winner in the election. I don't like the uncertainty I see now in the race, because there are too many stocks that will trade differently under different regimes. Ugh!

9. More bears in the Investors' Intelligence Survey. I would like to see the bulls well under 40%. Weird. This one has way too many bulls. I don't get it, because everybody I know is bearish.

10. Some headline on some newspaper or some magazine saying the bull is dead. This could be more important than No. 7, if done by a true believer, like Forbes or Business Week. Nazz 1500? How many more pictures of bears can we find. Holy Jellystone National!

11. Viewership down for the TV shows about the market. This would help, and would make us feel more like people have capitulated. Check, check, check!

12. The collapse of Buzz and Batch. I hate these smarmy jokers and I was thrilled to see them in the red today, but you knew they would take it up today. That's their style. They have too much on the line. With 123 funds down 40% or more, it is happening. These guys could be an endangered species.

What I don't need to see is a collapse in Cisco (CSCO:Nasdaq - news - boards), which many of you are waiting for. I don't think it will happen. It is the new crop of billion-dollar companies, the Juniper (JNPR:Nasdaq - news - boards)/Applied Micro Circuits (AMCC:Nasdaq - news - boards) crowd that has to break. That's where Buzz and Batch live. That's their breadbox. We are still long Cisco. Bought some more yesterday. It has been a poor performer though. Maybe that is enough.

Anyway, hope that helps. I am confident that when we see these occur, you can own stocks -- not just trade them.

We have a lot of the criteria checked off, but not enough. Everything is still a trade. But a trade to the long side EXCEPT for tech. Still more bad news there. Still plenty of bad news there. Some have bottomed, some haven't. Better than it has been, but still not great.

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James J. Cramer is manager of a hedge fund and co-founder of TheStreet.com. At time of publication, his fund was long Nokia. His fund often buys and sells securities that are the subject of his columns, both before and after the columns are published, and the positions that his fund takes may change at any time. Under no circumstances does the information in this column represent a recommendation to buy or sell stocks. Cramer's writings provide insights into the dynamics of money management and are not a solicitation for transactions. While he cannot provide investment advice or recommendations, he invites you to comment on his column at James J. Cramer .