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Commentary: Wrong! Dispatches from the Front *New* Alerts! Please click here...
First of all, like you, I think tech is the future. I think George Gilder is a brilliant man. I think American technology is fabulous. I think we make great stuff. Like you, I believe we are overdue for a rally in tech. Like you, I think the rally we had on Tuesday looked good and that very few people believe in it. Like you, I came in and was horrified about how terrible the market is looking now. However, unlike you, I took action. I diversified away from tech. You see, I am a generalist, and I can make money in many different places. I see opportunities every day in the Fluors (FLR:NYSE - news - boards) and the General Millses (GIS:NYSE - news - boards). I see how Lowe's (LOW:NYSE - news - boards) is doing, and I watch Sysco (SYY:NYSE - news - boards) as well as Cisco. Also unlike you, I talk to these tech companies constantly and they are honest with me about their prospects. Also unlike you, I have run money for many many years and I know that when we get in down cycles managers do bad things with peoples' money -- like lose it. And unlike you, I have been pretty negative on tech for a long time. I have not been on television saying I would load the boat up with tech. At the beginning of the year, I frowned on a long QQQ (QQQ:Amex - news - boards) strategy right in the face of a proponent of it on CNBC. I thought it foolish. I am not someone who has advocated riding tech all the way down from 5000 and am now telling you to get out. The opposite is true. I am a credentialed tech bear and I am not going to have it pinned on me that I just got bearish on tech, as so many others around me have. I made great money last year betting against tech and was vocal about it. I told you as late as yesterday to take those prices we had in the rally and reposition. Not everyone got this one wrong. Yesterday I spoke to a Washington Post reporter and she said I was the only one saying to sell tech of all the people she spoke to. I just said "typical" and moved on. Now, that we understand each other, let me tell you what I think you should do. During any rally, I want you to take a quarter of your tech mutual funds and sell. I want you to take a quarter of your tech stocks and sell. No more than a quarter. It is too late and there is too little left to do more than that. Put it someplace where the money is being made. It is being made in many different areas. Or don't put it anywhere at all and have money to put to work when tech is right again, even if it is at lower levels. OK, let's review: I did not say "sell all tech." I did not say "We are going to 1500 on the Nazz." I did not say "I think we are going to crash." I did not say "I hate Cisco (CSCO:Nasdaq - news - boards) the company here." I did not say, "Sell into the morass of this opening." I am being explicit about this because I am now hearing from so many people, "You are telling us to sell tech at the bottom." I want to reiterate that I told you to sell most of your tech when it was much higher. I can't say that now because it has come down so much. But it doesn't matter. I don't care how far it has come down. I care about making money, and I don't think that we will rally back to NAZZ 3000 or 4000 or 5000 and I want you to stay in the game and not get wiped out if we dip below where I think the Nazz can go. I want you to have enough money to keep reading me. I make these judgments because, if I were running your money, I would still be very underweighted in tech and would be shorting tech on the bounce. I don't fear missing the move up. I think that with your remaining tech holdings you will catch whatever there is to catch, if there is something to catch. I have noticed ever since I recommended sales of stocks last year at this time that nobody ever recommends sales without being hounded or attacked every time the market rallies 4% to 9%. Yesterday was typical. Even though I said, "Please sell into the rally," I was hounded for selling at bad times. When is a good time? I don't know of any. Look, often it doesn't seem worth it to go through the aggravation or the heat I am getting for this negativity. I swear, unfortunately, that it is much easier to be Joe Battipaglia or Abby Joseph Cohen or Tom Galvin than it is to be me. They get credit every time it goes up and they look like white knights every time it goes down. They seem like the friend of capital. When I say sell I seem like the enemy. Objectively, in the real world of professional money, however, that is wrong. These people are, in the real world of big-time performance management, regarded as glad-handers who would have annihilated you if you listened to them. I am from the real world of big-time money management. I'd rather be right and make money than be wrong and make everybody feel happy. James J. Cramer is a director and co-founder of TheStreet.com. He contributes daily market commentary for TheStreet.com's sites and serves as an adviser to the company's CEO. Outside contributing columnists for TheStreet.com and RealMoney.com, including Cramer, may, from time to time, write about stocks in which they have a position. In such cases, appropriate disclosure is made. While he cannot provide personalized investment advice or recommendations, he invites you to send comments on his column to jjcletters@thestreet.com.
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