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Commentary: Wireless Wiz *New* Alerts! Please click here...
You're probably going to be sick and tired of this topic by next summer; so let's squeeze it while it's still juicy. As Jim Seymour noted on Monday , the next step up in wireless functionality, 2.5-generation technology, like general packet radio services, is the ugly sister to the glamorous Cinderella of third-generation, or 3G networks. The stock market is now re-evaluating the 2.5G vs. 3G balance of power. This reappraisal partly explains why Nortel (NT:NYSE - news - boards) and Lucent (LU:NYSE - news - boards) have underperformed so dramatically since September. These two network giants have bet big on 3G and been less aggressive in pursuing more immediate GPRS opportunities. For both Nortel and Lucent, optical worries are compounded by the shift in the mobile network market outlook.
The first wave of global packet radio services phones will debut with data transfer speeds of around 30 or 40 kilobits per second; most of the early models will have black-and-white displays, and you certainly won't be able to play multiplayer Doom on them. But this Cinderella's sibling has a heart of gold -- namely coverage and cost. Unlike 3G, GPRS will match the entire current digital-network coverage: It won't stop working once you step outside of Trafalgar Square. You may have heard that Japan will start 3G services next spring. But the starting date is less important than the fact that these services in Japan and elsewhere will likely debut only in city centers, at least initially. Limited availability may mean that third-generation services could take a surprisingly long time until usage extends beyond core business customers. Significantly, new 2.5G general packet radio services handsets will carry only a modest price premium over regular digital handsets. Even more importantly, the cost of implementing GPRS represents an additional investment of only about 30% of the original cost of the mobile network. This means that GPRS infrastructure deals are conceived in a state of grace -- they don't require massive vendor financing. As Scott Moritz also noted on Monday, vendor financing is turning into the bogeyman of the 3G market . To read why the vendor financing situation is so much worse than most realize, click here . Tero Kuittinen is the vice president of wireless telecommunications at Halsey Advisory and Management, an investment firm based in New York. He is also the senior strategist of SpringToys, a mobile entertainment start-up company based in Helsinki. He is currently working on his Ph.D. in neurobiology research at the University of Helsinki. At time of publication, Halsey was long Nokia, although holdings can change at any time. Under no circumstances does the information in this column represent a recommendation to buy or sell stocks. Kuittinen appreciates your feedback and invites you to send it to Tero Kuittinen .
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