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Commentary: The Turnaround Artist *New* Alerts! Please click here...
A common error investors make, time and again, is to take a company that is thriving and project current conditions in a linear fashion into the distant future. But investing mirrors life -- it just isn't that easy. Unforeseeable problems always arise to dash hopes for a flawless business future. On the other side of the coin, investors avoid companies with problems, again assuming that the same will continue into the future. It's a silly mistake, wholly unnecessary and easily avoided, but one that I have built a career taking advantage of. The solution is obvious, though easier said than done. Don't linearly project current conditions into the future, particularly when they are exceptionally positive or negative. You need to be willing to go against the grain and make bets that are counterintuitive. My new turnaround choice outlined below fits the bill for those kind of investors. While Kmart (KM:NYSE - news - boards) has rallied off of its lows, there remains plenty of upside for investors who believe as I do, that better times lie ahead. It's Blue Light Time, Baby!As an investor with a value bent, I have kept an eye on Kmart for years, but it is only now that I believe operational changes have generated sufficient traction to translate into meaningful earnings improvement.
Kmart reminds me of my December recommendation of JC Penney (JCP:NYSE - news - boards) (up 102% since then), in that it is a retailer with girth, needing only the right leadership to unlock hidden value. So much of business is incremental, because tiny changes in margins, for example, can lead to massive changes in valuation, often to the tune of billions of dollars. That's one reason executive leadership is critical at companies such as Kmart and JC Penney. If management can sufficiently invigorate Kmart so that it can make, say, 2.5 cents per dollar of revenue instead of 1 cent, market value will balloon, at least doubling the current $4.8 billion value. Early signs at JC Penney indicate CEO Allen Questrom has already initiated a turnaround. Similarly, new management at Kmart, led by dynamic CEO Charles Conaway, has put in place enough changes to dramatically improve company performance. In particular, I like Kmart's emphasis on customer service and capital management. And a new marketing flair is evident in the stores, led, in part, by the return of blue-light specials offered each hour. So where does Kmart stock go from here? Most of my readers know that I care very little about the short term, as it is invariably poor for my companies anyway. Looking out one to three years, though, Kmart stock can easily climb as high as $25 if net profit margins eventually return to respectable levels of about 2.5% (key competitor Target, (TGT:NYSE - news - boards), is at 3.5%). Recommended ReadingI often get asked about recommendations for a book or two on value investing. I can heartily recommend my latest read, How to Think Like Benjamin Graham and Invest Like Warren Buffett, by Lawrence A. Cunningham. Books are not always as good as their title, but this one is. Arne Alsin is the founder and principal of Alsin Capital Management, an Oregon-based investment advisor specializing in turnaround situations. At time of publication, Alsin and/or his clients were long JC Penney and Kmart, although holdings can change at any time. Under no circumstances does the information in this column represent a recommendation to buy or sell stocks. Alsin appreciates your feedback and invites you to send it to arnealsin@home.com. Check out TheStreet.com's new portfolio tracker. The new tracker, powered by Money.net, provides streaming, real-time quotes so you can track your investments throughout the day. The real-time tracker includes all exchanges fees and permits you to track more than 200 stocks at the same time. There's a 30-day free trial and it costs $9.99 a month. For more details, click here.
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